[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 20 May - issued 2331UT/19-May-2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

Solar X-ray flare activity was very low during 19 May UT and it is
expected to be very low with a fair chance of a weak C class flare
during the next 2 days. Coronal Hole (CH) 735 spans the solar equator
and connects to a large Northern polar coronal hole. Coronal Holes are
the source of fast solar wind. CH 735 has rotated into a geoeffective
location (i.e., potential for a Sun-Earth connection). There is the
possibility of a minor geomagnetic storm (Kp=5) today, 20 May, due to
the impact of CH 735. An aurora watch has not been issued because the
Moon is waxing toward full. The solar wind speed is currently about
430 km/s and it may start to increase today. Conditions for HF radio
wave propagation are expected to be mildly depressed today, 20 May UT,
becoming more depressed on 21 May if a geomagnetic storm eventuates.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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