[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 18 December - issued 0006UT/18-Dec-2014

[rwc]

Solar activity was High yesterday with several M-class flares
occurring from active regions 2241 and 2242. The largest flare was an
M8.7/2B from active region 2242 (S18W02), peaking at 17/0451 UT. This
flare was associated with a CME observed on LASCO C2 imagery first at
0512UT, 17 December. The CME is expected to be hit the Earth in the
middle of the UT day, 19 December, though the majority of the mass is
expected to pass south of Earth. Both regions have grown over the past
24 hours. Expect Moderate to High solar activity over the next 3 days.
Note there is a low to moderate chance for X-class flares. The solar
wind speed is expected to be light until the arrival of the CME.
Geomagnetic conditions at quiet levels today, however should turn
active on 19 December. Note there is a possibility of aurora being
observed in southern latitudes such as Tasmania on 19-20 December.
Short-wave radio fadeouts likely. High-frequency radio communications
normal at this time.

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