[ips-sf] IPS Summary Forecast for 20 September - issued 2351UT/19-Sep-2013

[rwc]

Solar activity has been low and is expected to remain low. The largest
solar X-ray flare during the previous 24 hours was a C1.8 class event
at 08:17 UT from Active Region 1850. This region produced 3 more B
class events. SOHO spacecraft images show a slow Coronal Mass Ejection
(CME) leaving the south east limb starting at about 03 UT. There is a
possibility that a component of this CME is Earthward directed and it
may influence geospace in 3-4 days. The large Coronal Hole (CH 587)
located in the Northern Hemisphere is traversing the solar central
meridian today. Elevated solar wind speeds may arrive at Earth in 3-4
days. The solar wind speed remained strong, mostly between 500 and 600
km/s during September 19. This strong flow was due to a Coronal Hole
High Speed Stream (CH HSS). Geomagnetic activity was unsettled during
19 September due to this CH HSS. Geomagnetic activity will return to
quiet as the CH HSS passes by Earth, before becoming unsettled again
due to the influence of another CH HSS or weak CME effects. However,
no major space weather storm is expected at this stage.

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