[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 2 14:25:45 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - AUGUST 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Aug 83 4 32
02-Aug 85 4 36
03-Aug 88 1 43
04-Aug 85 1 35
05-Aug 89 3 38
06-Aug 91 2 42
07-Aug 95 10 46
08-Aug 105 2 45
09-Aug 114 9 44
10-Aug 121 9 45
11-Aug 131 8 56
12-Aug 147 5 55
13-Aug 149 5 56
14-Aug 149 6 68
15-Aug 139 1 68
16-Aug 134 3 68
17-Aug 135 9 80
18-Aug 140 6 75
19-Aug 121 4 62
20-Aug 121 11 66
21-Aug 120 9 60
22-Aug 115 12 47
23-Aug 110 4 55
24-Aug 105 3 53
25-Aug 100 3 50
26-Aug 98 3 56
27-Aug 91 3 57
28-Aug 87 6 43
29-Aug 86 4 42
30-Aug 90 20 41
31-Aug 88 15 4
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Aug 03 122.1 72.7 60.3 16.2 68.4 4
Sep 03 112.3 48.8 59.8 14.5 67.0 1
Oct 03 153.1 65.6 58.4 23.6 66.6 45
Nov 03 140.8 67.2 57.0 20.1 70.6 29
Dec 03 115.1 47.0 55.0 13.0 74.2 6
Jan 04 114.1 37.2 52.1 17.0 46.5 12
Feb 04 107.8 46.0 49.4 10.0 54.9 3
Mar 04 112.2 48.9 47.5p 9.8 63.2 4
Apr 04 101.3 39.3 45.7p 8.0 60.8 7
May 04 99.7 41.5 43.0p 6.4 51.8 1
Jun 04 97.4 43.2 41.0p 5.9 52.5 1
Jul 04 118.7 51.0 40.1p 11.4 50.2 39
Aug 04 110.1 40.9 39.0p 6.0 50.6 29
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 130 146 138 123 129 136 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 175 173 167 139 129 120 112 124 128 110 108 120
2003 110 92 82 71 61 66 75 59 60 65 63 69*
2004 48* 48* 57* 56 46 47* 45* 40^ 38^ 36^ 33^ 31^
2005 29^ 27^ 26^ 24^ 23^ 21^ 20^ 19^ 18^ 17^ 16^ 15^
2006 14^ 13^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 10^ 9^ 9^ 8^ 8^ 8^
2007 7^ 7^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 9^ 10^ 10^ 11^ 11^ 12^ 13^
2008 14^ 15^ 16^ 17^ 19^ 20^ 23^ 25^ 28^ 31^ 35^ 38^
2009 42^ 45^ 49^ 52^ 55^ 58^ 62^ 65^ 68^ 70^ 73^ 75^
2010 78^ 80^ 83^ 85^ 89^ 92^ 94^ 97^ 100^ 103^ 105^ 108^
2011 110^ 112^ 113^ 114^ 115^ 115^ 115^ 115^ 115^ 114^ 113^ 113^
2012 112^ 111^ 110^ 110^ 109^ 109^ 108^ 108^ 107^ 107^ 107^ 106^
2013 105^ 104^ 103^ 101^ 100^ 97^ 95^ 93^ 90^ 87^ 84^ 81^
2014 78^ 76^ 73^ 70^ 68^ 66^ 64^ 62^ 61^ 59^ 58^ 56^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
12 Aug 04 M1.2/1F 0505UT
13 Aug 04 M1.2/1F 0729UT
13 Aug 04 M1.1/1F 1209UT
13 Aug 04 X1.0 /1N 1812UT 1807-1815UT
13 Aug 04 M3.0 2343UT 2314-2346UT
13 Aug 04 M2.8/SF 2350UT
14 Aug 04 M2.4/SF 0414UT
14 Aug 04 M7.4/2N 0544UT 0536-0552UT
14 Aug 04 M2.3/1F 0756UT
14 Aug 04 M3.2/1F 1007UT 0952-1017UT
14 Aug 04 M5.6/2N 1343UT 1331-1350UT
14 Aug 04 M1.3 1818UT
14 Aug 04 M1.3 2016UT
15 Aug 04 M1.2/SF 0506UT
15 Aug 04 M1.2/SF 0600UT
15 Aug 04 M2.6/2F 1132UT
15 Aug 04 M9.4/1N 1241UT 1234-1243UT
15 Aug 04 M1.2 1845UT
16 Aug 04 M1.1/SF 0347UT
16 Aug 04 M1.1/1F 2244UT
17 Aug 04 M1.1/SF 0506UT
17 Aug 04 M2.4 1937UT
17 Aug 04 M1.8 2121UT
17 Aug 04 M1.3 2228UT
18 Aug 04 X1.8 /SF 1740UT 1729-1754UT
19 Aug 04 M3.0 0701UT 0635-0718UT
19 Aug 04 M2.1 1351UT
19 Aug 04 X1.8 /SF 1740UT 1729-1754UT
31 Aug 04 M1.4 0538UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at very low to low levels until 12 Aug. Large solar
region 656 became flare active after this date. This region
produced all but one of the 29 xray flare events for the month. A
total of 26 M class and 3 X class events were observed. The
largest flare for the month was an X1.8 on 18 Aug. This region has
returned to solar disk on 01 Sep, but has yet to produce any
activity.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
21-22 Aug 04: Isolated active periods.
29 Aug 04: Sudden impulse of around 15nT observed at 1002UT.
30 Aug 04: Active to Minor Storm observed following sudden impulse.
31 Aug 04: Active periods.
Moderate geomagnetic storm activity was observed on 30 Aug, following a
sudden impulse from a coronal mass ejection. This mass ejection was
probably associated with an erupting solar filament on 27 Aug.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
31 Aug 04: Regional MUFs depressed 15-30%
Strongly depressed regional ionospheric conditions were
observed on 31 Aug, following coronal mass ejection
induced geomagnetic activity on 30 Aug.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
13 Aug 04 34 14 Aug 04 16 Aug 04
15 Aug 04 35 16 Aug 04 17 Aug 04
16 Aug 04 36 17 Aug 04 19 Aug 04
31 Aug 04 37 31 Aug 04 31 Aug 04
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
15 Aug 04 23 16 Aug 04 17 Aug 04
ALERTS:
12 Aug 04: Flare Alert
13 Aug 04: Flare Alert
14 Aug 04: Flare Alert
15 Aug 04: Flare Alert
16 Aug 04: Flare Alert
17 Aug 04: Flare Alert
18 Aug 04: Flare Alert
19 Aug 04: Flare Alert
30 Aug 04: Geomagnetic
31 Aug 04: Flare Alert
31 Aug 04: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
14 Aug 04: SWF Alert (0539-0639 UT)
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