[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 7 10:20:12 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - SEPTEMBER 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Sep 90 7 30
02-Sep 94 4 41
03-Sep 97 2 42
04-Sep 99 2 45
05-Sep 103 6 49
06-Sep 107 9 52
07-Sep 119 8 51
08-Sep 125 4 52
09-Sep 131 2 61
10-Sep 130 1 66
11-Sep 116 2 64
12-Sep 115 3 66
13-Sep 118 7 63
14-Sep 115 25 68
15-Sep 110 11 45
16-Sep 108 18 49
17-Sep 105 12 52
18-Sep 103 7 57
19-Sep 105 5 54
20-Sep 101 8 56
21-Sep 95 7 43
22-Sep 91 15 42
23-Sep 90 9 33
24-Sep 89 5 40
25-Sep 90 3 32
26-Sep 90 2 36
27-Sep 90 5 38
28-Sep 90 5 39
29-Sep 90 6 37
30-Sep 88 2 44
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Sep 03 112.3 48.8 59.8 14.5 67.0 1
Oct 03 153.1 65.6 58.4 23.6 66.6 45
Nov 03 140.8 67.2 57.0 20.1 70.6 29
Dec 03 115.1 47.0 55.0 13.0 74.2 6
Jan 04 114.1 37.2 52.1 17.0 46.5 12
Feb 04 107.8 46.0 49.4 10.0 54.9 3
Mar 04 112.2 48.9 47.2 9.8 63.2 4
Apr 04 101.3 39.3 45.0p 8.0 60.8 7
May 04 99.7 41.5 42.2p 6.4 51.8 1
Jun 04 97.4 43.2 40.1p 5.9 52.5 1
Jul 04 118.7 51.0 39.1p 11.4 50.2 39
Aug 04 110.1 40.9 38.0p 6.0 50.6 29
Sep 04 103.1 27.7 36.3p 6.7 48.2 4
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 127* 130* 145* 137* 122* 130* 136* 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 175 173 167 139 129 120 112 124 128 110 108 120
2003 110 92 82 71 61 66 75 59 60 65 63 69
2004 58* 48 57 56* 49* 47 42* 36^ 33^ 30^ 27^ 24^
2005 22^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
2009 78^ 82^ 87^ 91^ 95^ 99^ 103^ 107^ 110^ 113^ 117^ 119^
2010 122^ 124^ 127^ 129^ 130^ 132^ 133^ 134^ 135^ 136^ 136^ 136^
2011 136^ 136^ 135^ 135^ 134^ 133^ 131^ 130^ 128^ 127^ 125^ 123^
2012 120^ 118^ 116^ 113^ 111^ 108^ 105^ 103^ 100^ 97^ 94^ 91^
2013 88^ 85^ 82^ 79^ 76^ 73^ 70^ 68^ 65^ 62^ 59^ 56^
2014 54^ 51^ 49^ 46^ 44^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
12 Sep 04 M4.8/2N 0056UT 0004-0133UT
12 Sep 04 M3.2/SN 0139UT 0136-0141UT
14 Sep 04 M1.5/1F 0930UT
19 Sep 04 M1.9 1712UT
10Mev Proton/PCA Event
Began Ended
13 09 2004 2115UT 15 09 2004 0620UT
19 09 2004 1950UT 20 09 2004 1210UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels for the month of
September, with only 4 M class X-ray flare events observed.
The largest flare for the month was an M4.8 event on 12 Sep.
A minor proton event and coronal mass ejection followed this
flare. A second minor proton event followed the M1.8
flare on 19 Sep. This event was also associated with a
coronal mass ejection.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
14 Sep 04: Active to minor storm periods.
16 Sep 04: Unsettled to Active
22 Sep 04: Brief active to minor storm period.
A weak (28nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 2002UT on 13 Sep. Active to minor storm levels followed on
14 Sep. This activity is associated with the coronal mass ejection
and M4.8 flare on 12 Sep. This was the most disturbed day of the month
with the local A index reaching 25 on this day. Mild activity on
16 Sep is believed due to a coronal hole. Another mass ejection
associated with the M1.8 flare on 19 Sep produced brief activity
on 22 Sep, following a weak (27nT) impulse observed in the IPS
magnetometer data at 0634UT on 22 Sep.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
15 Sep 04: Mild depression 15-20% early in UT day,
southern Aus region only.
21 Sep 04: Mild depression 15% early in UT day,
southern Aus region only.
25-29 Sep 04: Darwin and PNG MUFs depressed 15-20%
local night hours.
No major ionospheric depressions were observed this
month. Proton events may have degraded transpolar
HF circuits during intervals 13-15, and 19-20 Sep.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
13 Sep 04 38 14 Sep 04 15 Sep 04
20 Sep 04 39 22 Sep 04 23 Sep 04
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
13 Sep 04 24 14 Sep 04 16 Sep 04
16 Sep 04 25 17 Sep 04 17 Sep 04
20 Sep 04 26 22 Sep 04 23 Sep 04
ALERTS:
12 Sep 04: Flare Alert
14 Sep 04: Flare Alert
14 Sep 04: Geomagnetic
19 Sep 04: Flare Alert
22 Sep 04: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
12 Sep 04: SWF Alert (0019-0219 UT)
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