[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 3 15:56:01 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - OCTOBER 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
++++THIS IS THE FINAL ISSUE OF THE EMAIL TEXT ONLY MONTHLY SUMMARY+++++
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++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Oct 88 3 48
02-Oct 88 11 56
03-Oct 89 15 38
04-Oct 91 8 36
05-Oct 91 3 51
06-Oct 92 1 60
07-Oct 94 2 64
08-Oct 91 7 64
09-Oct 88 5 53
10-Oct 89 5 57
11-Oct 87 8 38
12-Oct 88 5 40
13-Oct 87 16 61
14-Oct 91 17 18
15-Oct 89 7 29
16-Oct 92 3 40
17-Oct 92 1 47
18-Oct 96 3 45
19-Oct 105 5 53
20-Oct 111 11 48
21-Oct 112 7 34
22-Oct 123 5 70
23-Oct 132 3 79
24-Oct 135 9 78
25-Oct 140 12 60
26-Oct 137 3 64
27-Oct 130 5 78
28-Oct 133 2 86
29-Oct 129 7 90
30-Oct 136 13 76
31-Oct 139 10 63
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Oct 03 153.1 65.6 58.4 23.6 66.6 45
Nov 03 140.8 67.2 57.0 20.1 70.6 29
Dec 03 115.1 47.0 55.0 13.0 74.2 6
Jan 04 114.1 37.2 52.1 17.0 46.5 12
Feb 04 107.8 46.0 49.4 10.0 54.9 3
Mar 04 112.2 48.9 47.2 9.8 63.2 4
Apr 04 101.3 39.3 45.6 8.0 60.8 7
May 04 99.7 41.5 43.5p 6.4 51.8 1
Jun 04 97.4 43.2 41.6p 5.9 52.5 1
Jul 04 118.7 51.0 40.7p 11.4 50.2 39
Aug 04 110.1 40.9 39.8p 6.0 50.6 29
Sep 04 103.1 27.7 38.3p 6.7 48.2 4
Oct 04 106.0 48.4 36.9p 6.8 55.6 10
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 127 130 145 137 122 130 136 141
2001 130 131 135* 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 175 173 167 139 129 120 112 124 128 110 108 120
2003 110 92 82 71 61 66 74* 59* 60* 65 63 68*
2004 57* 52* 53* 56 49 47 44* 43* 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^
2005 31^ 29^ 27^ 25^ 24^ 23^ 21^ 20^ 19^ 18^ 17^ 16^
2006 15^ 14^ 13^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 10^ 9^ 9^ 8^ 8^
2007 8^ 7^ 7^ 8^ 8^ 9^ 9^ 10^ 10^ 11^ 12^ 12^
2008 13^ 14^ 16^ 17^ 19^ 20^ 23^ 25^ 28^ 31^ 35^ 38^
2009 42^ 45^ 49^ 52^ 55^ 58^ 62^ 65^ 68^ 70^ 73^ 75^
2010 78^ 80^ 83^ 85^ 89^ 92^ 94^ 97^ 100^ 103^ 105^ 108^
2011 110^ 112^ 113^ 114^ 115^ 115^ 115^ 115^ 115^ 114^ 113^ 113^
2012 112^ 111^ 110^ 110^ 109^ 109^ 108^ 108^ 107^ 107^ 107^ 106^
2013 105^ 104^ 103^ 101^ 100^ 97^ 95^ 93^ 90^ 87^ 84^ 81^
2014 78^ 76^ 73^ 70^ 68^ 66^ 64^ 62^ 61^ 59^ 58^ 56^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
20 Oct 04 M2.6 1051UT
22 Oct 04 M2.1/1N 0811UT
24 Oct 04 M2.3/1N 2028UT
30 Oct 04 M3.3/SF 0333UT 0323-0337UT
30 Oct 04 M4.2/SF 0618UT 0608-0622UT
30 Oct 04 M3.7/1N 0928UT 0909-0930UT
30 Oct 04 X1.2 /SF 1146UT 1138-1150UT
30 Oct 04 M5.9/SN 1633UT 1618-1637UT
31 Oct 04 M1.1 0226UT
31 Oct 04 M2.3/SF 0532UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activiy was low until the 20th of the month. Afterwhich,
solar activity increased and high activity was observed on
30 Oct. A total of 10 xray events were observed during the month
of October. The two largest flares for the month both occured
on this day, with an M5.9 at 1633UT, and an X1 at 1146UT.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
03 Oct 04: Unsettled to active
13 Oct 04: Quiet to Active
14 Oct 04: Quiet to Minor Storm
No signifcant geomagnetic disturbances were observed during the
month of October. A moderate coronal hole induced disturbance was
observed 13-14 October.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
14 Oct 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 20%
15 Oct 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
Regional MUFs were generally near predicted monthly values
during the month of October. Southern Australian and New Zealand
region MUFs were mild to moderately depressed on 14 and 15 Oct
following coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic
activity.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
14 Oct 04 40 15 Oct 04 15 Oct 04
25 Oct 04 41 25 Oct 04 27 Oct 04
30 Oct 04 42 02 Nov 04 03 Nov 04
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
13 Oct 04 27 13 Oct 04 14 Oct 04
30 Oct 04 28 01 Nov 04 02 Nov 04
ALERTS:
03 Oct 04: Geomagnetic
13 Oct 04: Geomagnetic
14 Oct 04: Geomagnetic
20 Oct 04: Flare Alert
22 Oct 04: Flare Alert
24 Oct 04: Flare Alert
30 Oct 04: Flare Alert
31 Oct 04: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
30 Oct 04: SWF Alert (0329-0339 UT)
30 Oct 04: SWF Alert (0609-0624 UT)
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