[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - February 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 3 09:21:53 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - FEBRUARY 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Feb 97 9 65
02-Feb 102 12 68
03-Feb 120 18 56
04-Feb 101 11 43
05-Feb 106 11 69
06-Feb 107 13 70
07-Feb 111 7 49
08-Feb 116 3 54
09-Feb 118 6 70
10-Feb 117 6 75
11-Feb 114 21 57
12-Feb 112 23 12
13-Feb 108 16 36
14-Feb 104 13 45
15-Feb 102 14 37
16-Feb 99 5 47
17-Feb 102 3 68
18-Feb 98 9 37
19-Feb 96 5 51
20-Feb 95 3 65
21-Feb 98 7 71
22-Feb 104 8 49
23-Feb 104 8 57
24-Feb 106 9 60
25-Feb 119 6 53
26-Feb 121 3 54
27-Feb 122 12 66
28-Feb 116 14 60
29-Feb 110 16 48
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 78.6 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 74.2 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 70.4 14.7 88.7 15
May 03 116.7 55.2 67.9 17.5 72.9 12
Jun 03 129.4 77.4 65.3 16.3 75.4 43
Jul 03 127.8 85.0 62.1 13.3 76.7 7
Aug 03 122.1 72.7 60.3 16.2 68.4 4
Sep 03 112.3 48.8 59.7p 14.5 67.0 1
Oct 03 153.1 65.6 58.5p 23.6 66.6 45
Nov 03 140.8 67.2 57.4p 20.1 70.6 29
Dec 03 115.1 47.0 55.4p 13.0 74.2 6
Jan 04 114.1 37.2 52.1p 17.0 46.5 12
Feb 04 107.8 46.0 48.8p 10.0 54.9 3
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 130 146 138 123 129 136 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 174 174 167 139 130 123 115 126 131 113 110 118
2003 110 93 82 72 63* 70* 77* 65* 61* 65* 64* 68*
2004 54* 51^ 49^ 46^ 44^ 41^ 38^ 37^ 35^ 34^ 32^ 31^
2005 29^ 28^ 27^ 25^ 24^ 22^ 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 17^ 16^
2006 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 10^ 9^ 9^ 8^ 8^
2007 7^ 7^ 7^ 7^ 8^ 8^ 9^ 9^ 10^ 11^ 11^ 12^
2008 13^ 14^ 16^ 17^ 19^ 20^ 23^ 25^ 28^ 31^ 35^ 38^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
08 Feb 04 M1.2/SF 2051UT
26 Feb 04 X1.1 /2N 0203UT 0150-0210UT
26 Feb 04 M5.7 2230UT 2214-2239UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at mostly very low to low levels during the month of
February. Solar activity was moderate on 8 Feb. High activity was observed
on 26 Feb, with an X1.1 flare at 0203UT and an M5.7 flare at 2230 UT.
The X1 event was the largest flare for the month. No coronal mass ejection
was observed with this flare.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
03 Feb 04: Unsettled to Active
11 Feb 04: Quiet to Minor Storm
12 Feb 04: Unsettled to Minor Storm
13 Feb 04: Mostly unsettled to active with short isolated minor storm periods
29 Feb 04: Quiet to Minor Storm
Coronal hole solar wind streams were the source of mild to moderate
geomagnetic activity this month. The most disturbed day of the month
is Feb 12 when the local A index reached 23.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
04 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
07 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
08 Feb 04: Northern region MUFs depressed 13%
12 Feb 04: Northern region MUFs depressed 25%
Southern region MUFs depressed 20%
13 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
18 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
22 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
29 Feb 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
Depressed MUFs were observed in southern Aus/NZ region
generally in association with coronal hole wind stream
induced activity. Feb 12 was the most depressed day of the
month, with the local ionospheric daily T index falling to
a value of 12.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
12 Feb 04 11 12 Feb 04 13 Feb 04
13 Feb 04 12 14 Feb 04 15 Feb 04
15 Feb 04 13 16 Feb 04 16 Feb 04
18 Feb 04 14 18 Feb 04 18 Feb 04
19 Feb 04 15 19 Feb 04 19 Feb 04
26 Feb 04 16 27 Feb 04 29 Feb 04
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
10 Feb 04 08 11 Feb 04 13 Feb 04
13 Feb 04 09 14 Feb 04 15 Feb 04
15 Feb 04 10 16 Feb 04 16 Feb 04
ALERTS:
04 Feb 04: Flare Alert
08 Feb 04: Flare Alert
11 Feb 04: Geomagnetic
12 Feb 04: Geomagnetic
26 Feb 04: Flare Alert
29 Feb 04: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
26 Feb 04: SWF Alert (0154-0234 UT)
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