[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - May 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 2 14:37:00 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - MAY 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

              SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day      10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-May          94        7       69
02-May          98        4       49
03-May          91        6       53
04-May          87        8       52
05-May          89       13       45
06-May          86        6       46
07-May          85       11       46
08-May          87        9       42
09-May          93        4       39
10-May          93        4       34
11-May          90        7       44
12-May          99        7       55
13-May         101        8       51
14-May         110        2       55
15-May         115        4       54
16-May         118        2       53
17-May         111        2       58
18-May         108        2       54
19-May         109        6       59
20-May         105       10       70
21-May         107        7       58
22-May         102        8       50
23-May         104        8       59
24-May         105       10       53
25-May         102        4       57
26-May         103        2       50
27-May         102        2       53
28-May         102        7       47
29-May         101        7       54
30-May         100       11       52
31-May          95        9       46

          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
May 03     116.7     55.2     67.9     17.5     72.9   12
Jun 03     129.4     77.4     65.3     16.3     75.4   43
Jul 03     127.8     85.0     62.1     13.3     76.7    7
Aug 03     122.1     72.7     60.3     16.2     68.4    4
Sep 03     112.3     48.8     59.8     14.5     67.0    1
Oct 03     153.1     65.6     58.4     23.6     66.6   45
Nov 03     140.8     67.2     57.0     20.1     70.6   29
Dec 03     115.1     47.0     54.8p    13.0     74.2    6
Jan 04     114.1     37.2     51.3p    17.0     46.5   12
Feb 04     107.8     46.0     47.8p    10.0     54.9    3
Mar 04     112.2     48.9     45.8p     9.8     63.2    4
Apr 04     101.3     39.3     44.0p     8.0     60.8    7
May 04      99.7     41.5     41.3p     6.4     51.8    1

               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   129   130   146   138   123   129   136   141  
2001   130   131   135   123   112   132   112   113   144   151   156   162  
2002   175*  173*  167*  139*  129*  120*  112*  124*  128*  110*  110   120  
2003   111    93    83    73    62*   68    75    60    61*   66*   63*   71* 
2004    47    46*   55*   50*   44^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^ 
2005    28^   27^   25^   24^   23^   22^   20^   19^   18^   17^   16^   15^ 
2006    14^   13^   13^   12^   11^   11^   10^    9^    9^    8^    8^    8^ 
2007     7^    7^    7^    8^    8^    9^    9^   10^   11^   11^   12^   13^ 
2008    14^   15^   16^   17^   19^   20^   23^   25^   28^   31^   35^   38^ 
2009    42^   45^   49^   52^   55^   58^   62^   65^   68^   70^   73^   75^ 
2010    78^   80^   83^   85^   89^   92^   94^   97^  100^  103^  105^  108^ 
2011   110^  112^  113^  114^  115^  115^  115^  115^  115^  114^  113^  113^ 
2012   112^  111^  110^  110^  109^  109^  108^  108^  107^  107^  107^  106^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.


===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
21 May 04	 M2.6               	2352UT

2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at predominately very low to low levels during
the month of May. Only one low level M class event was observed.

===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
05-07 May 04: Unsettled to active
   13 May 04: Active periods observed in northern hemisphere.
   20 May 04: Unsettled to active

No significant geomagnetic disturbances were observed this month.
A possible very weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 22UT
on 10 May. No geomagnetic activity followed this weak shock signature.

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
06 May 04: 10-15% depressed local day, southern Aus/NZ region only.
09 May 04: 10-20% depressed local night.
10 May 04: 10-20% depressed first half UT day.

No significant ionospheric depressions were observed this month.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
02 May 04	23	03 May 04	04 May 04
06 May 04	24	06 May 04	06 May 04



GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
02 May 04	16	03 May 04	04 May 04
27 May 04	17	01 Jun 04	03 Jun 04


ALERTS: 
12 May 04: Flare Alert
22 May 04: Flare Alert


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)


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