[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - July 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 3 12:21:18 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - JULY 2004
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Jul 81 8 52
02-Jul 81 7 41
03-Jul 80 6 35
04-Jul 79 4 38
05-Jul 78 4 38
06-Jul 79 4 31
07-Jul 79 2 27
08-Jul 82 0 32
09-Jul 87 1 33
10-Jul 93 3 36
11-Jul 104 10 47
12-Jul 125 8 54
13-Jul 127 9 56
14-Jul 138 4 57
15-Jul 146 3 64
16-Jul 147 5 64
17-Jul 149 9 75
18-Jul 155 5 71
19-Jul 170 7 69
20-Jul 175 5 70
21-Jul 172 3 66
22-Jul 173 16 64
23-Jul 165 24 97
24-Jul 147 19 73
25-Jul 145 57 92
26-Jul 128 21 6
27-Jul 118 80 60
28-Jul 101 13 23
29-Jul 100 6 28
30-Jul 89 4 25
31-Jul 86 7 33
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Jul 03 127.8 85.0 62.1 13.3 76.7 7
Aug 03 122.1 72.7 60.3 16.2 68.4 4
Sep 03 112.3 48.8 59.8 14.5 67.0 1
Oct 03 153.1 65.6 58.4 23.6 66.6 45
Nov 03 140.8 67.2 57.0 20.1 70.6 29
Dec 03 115.1 47.0 55.0 13.0 74.2 6
Jan 04 114.1 37.2 52.1 17.0 46.5 12
Feb 04 107.8 46.0 49.2p 10.0 54.9 3
Mar 04 112.2 48.9 47.2p 9.8 63.2 4
Apr 04 101.3 39.3 45.4p 8.0 60.8 7
May 04 99.7 41.5 42.7p 6.4 51.8 1
Jun 04 97.4 43.2 40.7p 5.9 52.5 1
Jul 04 118.7 51.0 39.7p 11.4 50.2 39
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 130 146 138 123 129 136 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 175 173 167 139 129 120 112 124 128 110 110 120
2003 111 93 83 73 62 68 75 59* 60* 65* 63* 69*
2004 49* 46* 57* 52* 39* 42^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^
2005 28^ 27^ 25^ 24^ 22^ 21^ 20^ 19^ 18^ 17^ 16^ 15^
2006 14^ 13^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 10^ 9^ 9^ 8^ 8^ 8^
2007 7^ 7^ 8^ 8^ 8^ 9^ 10^ 10^ 11^ 11^ 12^ 13^
2008 14^ 15^ 16^ 17^ 19^ 20^ 23^ 25^ 28^ 31^ 35^ 38^
2009 42^ 45^ 49^ 52^ 55^ 58^ 62^ 65^ 68^ 70^ 73^ 75^
2010 78^ 80^ 83^ 85^ 89^ 92^ 94^ 97^ 100^ 103^ 105^ 108^
2011 110^ 112^ 113^ 114^ 115^ 115^ 115^ 115^ 115^ 114^ 113^ 113^
2012 112^ 111^ 110^ 110^ 109^ 109^ 108^ 108^ 107^ 107^ 107^ 106^
2013 105^ 104^ 103^ 101^ 100^ 97^ 95^ 93^ 90^ 87^ 84^ 81^
2014 78^ 76^ 73^ 70^ 68^ 66^ 64^ 62^ 61^ 59^ 58^ 56^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
12 Jul 04 M1.6 0808UT
13 Jul 04 M6.7 0017UT 0009-0023UT
13 Jul 04 M5.4/1N 0848UT 0840-0855UT
13 Jul 04 M2.9 1208UT
13 Jul 04 M1.1/1N 1838UT
13 Jul 04 M6.2/1B 1932UT 1924-1936UT
14 Jul 04 M6.2/1N 0523UT 0502-0527UT
15 Jul 04 X1.8 0141UT 0130-0148UT
15 Jul 04 X1.6 1824UT 1815-1828UT
16 Jul 04 X1.3 0206UT 0143-0212UT
16 Jul 04 X1.1 /1F 1041UT 1032-1046UT
16 Jul 04 X3.6 /3B 1355UT 1349-1401UT 1349-1401UT
16 Jul 04 M1.2/SF 1628UT
17 Jul 04 X1.0 /1F 0757UT 0751-0759UT
17 Jul 04 M2.5/1N 1651UT
17 Jul 04 M2.0/1F 2131UT
17 Jul 04 M1.1 2308UT
18 Jul 04 M2.0/1F 0035UT
18 Jul 04 M1.5/SF 0257UT
18 Jul 04 M1.9/1F 1713UT
20 Jul 04 M8.6/3B 1232UT 1222-1245UT
22 Jul 04 M9.1 0032UT 0014-0043UT
22 Jul 04 M1.6/2N 2258UT
23 Jul 04 M2.2/SF 1728UT
23 Jul 04 M1.7 2123UT
24 Jul 04 M1.0/1F 0606UT
24 Jul 04 M2.5 1850UT
25 Jul 04 M7.1/2B 0551UT 0539-0558UT
25 Jul 04 M1.0/1F 0639UT
25 Jul 04 M2.2 1349UT
25 Jul 04 M1.1/1F 1514UT
26 Jul 04 M1.3/SF 0552UT
26 Jul 04 M1.1/2N 1730UT
26 Jul 04 M1.2 0000UT
27 Jul 04 M1.1/1N 0545UT
27 Jul 04 M1.5/1F 2020UT
27 Jul 04 M1.2/1F 0000UT
28 Jul 04 M2.0 0006UT
10Mev Proton/PCA Event
Begin End
25 07 2004 1920UT 27 07 2004 1445UT
27 07 2004 1510UT 27 07 2004 1735UT
27 07 2004 1830UT 27 07 2004 1930UT
27 07 2004 2015UT 28 07 2004 0005UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was initially at very low to low levels for the first
11 days of the month of July. Moderate to high solar flare activity was
observed during the remainder of the month. A total of 38 xray
flare events were observed, 32 M class events and 6 X class events.
The largest flare for the month was an X3.6 on Jul 16. This flare
activity originated from two solar regions, numbered 649 and 652. Solar region
649 rotated onto the solar disk on 12 July and produced all 6 X class
events. Solar region 652 rotated onto the solar disk on 16 July and
produced M class activity from 20 July. Solar region 649 showed
decay and a decline in flare activity after 19 July. Solar region
649 is due back to the solar disk on 7 Aug. Solar region 652 was still
active as it left the solar disk and is due back to the solar east limb
on 12 Aug. Numerous mass ejections were observed in association with
the flare activity from these regions. Auroral sighting were reported
during the period 25-29 July, as a result of some of these mass ejection
events. Solar proton events were also observed during the interval 25-27
July degrading transpolar HF circuits during this period.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
22 Jul 04: Quiet to Minor Storm
23 Jul 04: Active to minor storm
24 Jul 04: Unsettled to Active
25 Jul 04: Active to Major Storm
26 Jul 04: Quiet to Major Storm
27 Jul 04: Active to Severe Storm Levels
Coronal mass ejection induced geomagnetic storm activity was
observed from the interval 22 to 27 July. Severe storm activity
was observed on 25 and 27 July. The local A index reached 57
and 80 respectively, on these days.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
26 Jul 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 35%
28 Jul 04: Southern region MUFs depressed 20%
Strongly depressed ionospheric MUFs were observed
on 26 and 28 July following strong geomagnetic
storm activity on 25 and 27 July. Frequent short wave
fadeouts were observed during the later half of the
month in association with this months increased flare
activity. Also, transpolar HF communications experienced
increased absorption at times during the interval 25-27 July
due to energetic solar proton events associated with some
of these flares.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
13 Jul 04 26 13 Jul 04 16 Jul 04
14 Jul 04 27 15 Jul 04 16 Jul 04
16 Jul 04 28 17 Jul 04 19 Jul 04
17 Jul 04 29 17 Jul 04 17 Jul 04
19 Jul 04 30 20 Jul 04 22 Jul 04
25 Jul 04 31 26 Jul 04 26 Jul 04
26 Jul 04 32 26 Jul 04 28 Jul 04
29 Jul 04 33 30 Jul 04 31 Jul 04
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
14 Jul 04 19 15 Jul 04 16 Jul 04
17 Jul 04 20 17 Jul 04 17 Jul 04
25 Jul 04 21 25 Jul 04 27 Jul 04
29 Jul 04 22 29 Jul 04 30 Jul 04
ALERTS:
12 Jul 04: Flare Alert
13 Jul 04: Flare Alert
14 Jul 04: Flare Alert
15 Jul 04: Flare Alert
16 Jul 04: Flare Alert
17 Jul 04: Flare Alert
17 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
18 Jul 04: Flare Alert
20 Jul 04: Flare Alert
22 Jul 04: Flare Alert
22 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
23 Jul 04: Flare Alert
23 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
24 Jul 04: Flare Alert
24 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
25 Jul 04: Flare Alert
25 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
26 Jul 04: Flare Alert
26 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
27 Jul 04: Flare Alert
27 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
28 Jul 04: Geomagnetic
29 Jul 04: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
15 Jul 04: SWF Alert (0134-0239 UT)
16 Jul 04: SWF Alert (0159-0314 UT)
22 Jul 04: SWF Alert (0014-0124 UT)
25 Jul 04: SWF Alert (0544-0609 UT)
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-msgr
mailing list