[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - August 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 4 10:26:05 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - AUGUST 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Aug 107 27 65
02-Aug 111 16 53
03-Aug 120 11 60
04-Aug 123 9 53
05-Aug 131 6 63
06-Aug 129 13 95
07-Aug 137 19 73
08-Aug 133 23 83
09-Aug 130 12 74
10-Aug 131 10 70
11-Aug 129 8 75
12-Aug 123 20 87
13-Aug 131 12 84
14-Aug 130 13 85
15-Aug 131 9 89
16-Aug 127 8 93
17-Aug 119 16 71
18-Aug 116 54 96
19-Aug 117 16 19
20-Aug 112 12 61
21-Aug 119 33 63
22-Aug 121 31 37
23-Aug 120 31 40
24-Aug 116 17 54
25-Aug 117 14 55
26-Aug 121 11 65
27-Aug 126 8 69
28-Aug 119 12 70
29-Aug 116 14 72
30-Aug 114 10 63
31-Aug 110 7 82
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 98.7 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 94.6 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 90.5 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 85.3 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 82.1 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 81.0 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 78.6 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 74.4p 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 70.2p 14.7 88.7 15
May 03 116.7 55.2 66.4p 17.5 72.9 12
Jun 03 129.4 77.4 63.0p 16.3 75.4 43
Jul 03 127.8 85.0 60.1p 13.3 76.7 7
Aug 03 122.1 72.7 58.5p 16.2 68.4 4
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 130 146 138 123 129 136 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 174* 174* 167* 137 128* 119* 111 127 129* 112 109* 118*
2003 112* 92* 85* 73* 60* 67* 71* 61^ 57^ 54^ 51^ 49^
2004 45^ 43^ 40^ 38^ 36^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
02 Aug 03 M1.3/1F 2354UT
05 Aug 03 M1.7/SN 1249UT
19 Aug 03 M2.0/1N 0759UT
19 Aug 03 M2.7/2F 1006UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar flare activity was at mostly low levels during the month of
August with only 4 isolated low level M class events observed.
The largest flare for the month was an M2.7 on Aug 19. However,
numerous coronal holes were observed on the solar disk during the
month.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
01-02 Aug 03: Isolated Active to minor storm periods.
07-08 Aug 03: Active to minor storm periods.
12 Aug 03: Active periods.
17 Aug 03: Active to minor storm periods second half of UT day.
18 Aug 03: Severe Storm Levels
19 Aug 03: Active periods.
21-25 Aug 03: Active to minor storm periods.
The most significant disturbance for the month was observed
on 18 August. This disturbance was not forecast and the
solar origin of the activity remains unclear. The best candidate
is a halo coronal mass ejection observed at around 21UT on 14 August
which was then assumed a backside solar disk event due to to the lack
of frontside on disk solar activity around this time. The strong storm
conditions appeared super-imposed on a moderate coronal hole
wind stream induced disturbance, which had begun a day earlier.
The local Australian A index reached 54 on this day. Geomagnetic
activity was also quite strong on 21 Aug, and this activity
is believed associated with the Earth entering a coronal
hole high speed wind stream on this day.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
18 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15-30% late in UT day.
19 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 20-40% first half UT day.
20 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
22 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15-20%
23 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15-20%
24 Aug 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 10-15%
The deepest ionospheric depression for the month was
observed on 19 August following unexpected strong geomagnetic
storm activity. The local Australian region ionospheric
T index fell to 19 on this day. Ionospheric MUF depressions
were mostly confined to southern Aus/NZ region. Northern Aus
region MUFs remained mostly near or above predicted monthly values
during the month of August.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
05 Aug 03 55 07 Aug 03 09 Aug 03
13 Aug 03 56 14 Aug 03 16 Aug 03
18 Aug 03 57 18 Aug 03 18 Aug 03
19 Aug 03 58 19 Aug 03 19 Aug 03
20 Aug 03 59 20 Aug 03 20 Aug 03
21 Aug 03 60 21 Aug 03 23 Aug 03
23 Aug 03 61 24 Aug 03 24 Aug 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
03 Aug 03 35 06 Aug 03 08 Aug 03
09 Aug 03 36 11 Aug 03 13 Aug 03
18 Aug 03 37 18 Aug 03 18 Aug 03
19 Aug 03 38 19 Aug 03 19 Aug 03
21 Aug 03 39 21 Aug 03 23 Aug 03
23 Aug 03 40 24 Aug 03 24 Aug 03
ALERTS:
01 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
02 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
03 Aug 03: Flare Alert
05 Aug 03: Flare Alert
06 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
07 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
08 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
17 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
18 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
19 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
19 Aug 03: Flare Alert
21 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
22 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
23 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
29 Aug 03: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
None Issued.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
More information about the ips-msgr
mailing list