[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - April 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 5 09:59:42 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - APRIL 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Apr 153 12 82
02-Apr 158 15 96
03-Apr 156 10 92
04-Apr 153 19 94
05-Apr 137 17 93
06-Apr 126 6 95
07-Apr 116 6 102
08-Apr 112 21 97
09-Apr 109 21 89
10-Apr 103 19 90
11-Apr 103 13 81
12-Apr 102 9 74
13-Apr 102 7 83
14-Apr 102 11 86
15-Apr 101 14 98
16-Apr 99 25 80
17-Apr 101 18 83
18-Apr 108 14 80
19-Apr 112 9 74
20-Apr 119 13 84
21-Apr 126 17 106
22-Apr 132 19 105
23-Apr 133 12 90
24-Apr 128 18 81
25-Apr 144 20 75
26-Apr 144 13 78
27-Apr 154 11 78
28-Apr 152 11 100
29-Apr 155 16 94
30-Apr 154 25 101
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 110.4 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 108.8 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 106.2 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 102.7 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 98.7 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 94.6 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 90.5 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 85.6p 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 82.1p 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 79.3p 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 75.0p 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 70.2p 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 66.0p 14.7 88.7 15
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 128 148 139 123 129 135 141
2001 130 131 135* 123 112* 132 112* 113* 142 151 156* 159*
2002 169 172 165 137 128 119 111* 127 130 114* 106* 113*
2003 112* 83* 96* 77^ 72^ 67^ 61^ 56^ 52^ 49^ 47^ 44^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
04 Apr 03 M1.9 2019UT
04 Apr 03 M2.1 2019UT
09 Apr 03 M2.5/1F 2329UT
18 Apr 03 M1.1 1958UT
21 Apr 03 M2.8/1N 1307UT
23 Apr 03 M5.1/1N 0106UT 0039-0115UT
23 Apr 03 M2.0/1F 1556UT
24 Apr 03 M3.3/1N 1253UT 1245-1303UT
25 Apr 03 M1.2/SF 0540UT
26 Apr 03 M2.1/SF 0058UT
26 Apr 03 M2.1/SN 0306UT
26 Apr 03 M7.0 0807UT 0801-0809UT
26 Apr 03 M2.5 2340UT
27 Apr 03 M1.7/SF 1532UT
29 Apr 03 M1.1/1F 0459UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was predominately low during the first half
of the month. An increase in flare activity was observed
during the second half of the month. Most of these flares
were produced by solar region 338, which appeared in the
north-east solar quadrant on 19 Apr and rotated off disk
on 27 Apr. This region is due back to the north-east limb
of the sun on 11 May. A total of 15 M class flares were observed
for the month, the largest flare for the month was
an impulsive M7.0 on 26 Apr, produced by region 338.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
04-05 Apr 03: Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm periods observed.
08-10 Apr 03: Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm periods. A sudden
impulse of approx. 20nT observed at 0111UT.
14-25 Apr 03: Unsettled to active. Minor storm periods 16-17 Apr and 25 Apr.
28-30 Apr 03: Mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods on 30 Apr.
Coronal hole high speed wind streams produced broad periods of elevated
geomagnetic activity this month. A weak mass ejection signature was observed
on 08 Apr super-imposed on coronal hole induced activity.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
01 Apr 03: Some southern region sites depressed 15-20%
11-12 Apr 03: Some southern region sites depressed 15% from 22UT on 11 Apr
to 01UT on 12 Apr.
14 Apr 03: Degraded comms quality local night hours, southern region.
16-17 Apr 03: Some southern region sites depressed 30% from 21UT on 16 Apr
to 02UT on 17 Apr.
24 Apr 03: Some southern region sites depressed 15%.
25 Apr 03: Degraded comms quality local night hours, southern region.
30 Apr 03: Degraded comms quality local night hours, southern region.
Ionospheric MUF depressions this month were mild and confined to the
southern Aus region. Northern Aus region MUFs remained near to 20%
above predicted monthly values for most of the month.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
08 Apr 03 26 11 Apr 03 12 Apr 03
14 Apr 03 27 16 Apr 03 17 Apr 03
23 Apr 03 28 23 Apr 03 24 Apr 03
24 Apr 03 29 25 Apr 03 26 Apr 03
26 Apr 03 30 26 Apr 03 28 Apr 03
30 Apr 03 31 30 Apr 03 02 May 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
08 Apr 03 10 10 Apr 03 12 Apr 03
14 Apr 03 11 15 Apr 03 17 Apr 03
23 Apr 03 12 23 Apr 03 24 Apr 03
24 Apr 03 13 25 Apr 03 26 Apr 03
26 Apr 03 14 26 Apr 03 28 Apr 03
30 Apr 03 15 30 Apr 03 02 May 03
ALERTS:
04 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
04 Apr 03: Flare Alert
04 Apr 03: Flare Alert
05 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
08 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
09 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
16 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
17 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
21 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
22 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
23 Apr 03: Flare Alert
23 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
24 Apr 03: Flare Alert
25 Apr 03: Flare Alert
26 Apr 03: Flare Alert
29 Apr 03: Flare Alert
30 Apr 03: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
23 Apr 03: SWF Alert (0059-0129 UT)
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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