[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - February 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 4 10:52:36 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - FEBRUARY 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Feb 126 15 79
02-Feb 127 38 36
03-Feb 133 19 34
04-Feb 135 26 58
05-Feb 140 15 99
06-Feb 150 15 126
07-Feb 157 13 113
08-Feb 139 14 94
09-Feb 141 11 126
10-Feb 136 16 70
11-Feb 135 13 112
12-Feb 132 12 95
13-Feb 131 8 109
14-Feb 131 15 125
15-Feb 124 17 135
16-Feb 119 18 98
17-Feb 112 14 108
18-Feb 110 25 96
19-Feb 116 15 96
20-Feb 118 17 117
21-Feb 120 12 97
22-Feb 107 11 109
23-Feb 104 11 95
24-Feb 102 7 109
25-Feb 102 6 112
26-Feb 109 18 95
27-Feb 118 22 72
28-Feb 125 17 60
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Feb 02 205.2 108.0 114.7 11.1 154.4 19
Mar 02 179.5 98.1 113.3 10.4 165.1 15
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 110.4 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 108.8 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 106.2 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 102.7 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 98.7 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 94.9p 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 91.4p 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 86.7p 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 83.2p 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 80.4p 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 76.1p 15.7 95.5 3
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 128 148 139 123 129 135 141
2001 129 130* 135* 123 111 131 111 112 143 151 154 159
2002 169 172 167 137 128* 119* 111* 132* 138* 120* 113* 120*
2003 94^ 88^ 81^ 75^ 69^ 63^ 58^ 55^ 52^ 50^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
01 Feb 03 M1.2 0905UT
06 Feb 03 M1.2 0349UT
14 Feb 03 M1.2/SF 0918UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at predominately low levels
this month. Only 3 low level M class xray flare
events were observed over the month.
The monthly mean sunspot number for this month was 46.2.
This is a rather low figure compared to previous months,
and with only three low level M class flares observed
during February this may seem to imply an earlier than
expected arrival of solar minimum. However, some variability
in sunspot number is to be expected from month to month and
whilst we are in the declining phase of this cycle, near future
monthly mean sunspot number values are not expected
to be consistently below this month's low value.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
01-05 Feb 03: Active periods, with major storm periods on 02 Feb and minor
storm periods on 03-04 Feb.
10 Feb 03: Active periods
15-16 Feb 03: Active periods
18 Feb 03: Isolated minor to major storm period
20 Feb 03: Active periods
26 Feb 03: Active periods
27 Feb 03: Isolated Minor Storm period
28 Feb 03: Quiet to Active
The disturbed days of 02-03 Feb appeared to be due to an erupting
solar filament on 30 Jan, with a possible weak underlying recurrent
pattern of activity. 02 Feb was the most disturbed day of the
month with a local A index of 38. Other disturbed intervals
during the month are believed to be associated with solar
coronal hole high speed wind streams.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
02 Feb 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 35%
Southern region MUFs depressed 18%
03 Feb 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 21%
Southern region MUFs depressed 24%
04 Feb 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 15%
10 Feb 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 11%
12 Feb 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 11%
Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
17 Feb 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
18 Feb 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
28 Feb 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 18%
The deepest MUF depressions for the month were observed
on 02 and 03 Feb, with observed regional T indices of 36
and 34 respectively.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
01 Feb 03 05 01 Feb 03 02 Feb 03
03 Feb 03 06 03 Feb 03 03 Feb 03
03 Feb 03 07 04 Feb 03 04 Feb 03
04 Feb 03 08 05 Feb 03 05 Feb 03
07 Feb 03 09 08 Feb 03 08 Feb 03
09 Feb 03 10 10 Feb 03 10 Feb 03
17 Feb 03 11 17 Feb 03 18 Feb 03
28 Feb 03 12 01 Mar 03 01 Mar 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
01 Feb 03 03 01 Feb 03 02 Feb 03
03 Feb 03 04 03 Feb 03 03 Feb 03
04 Feb 03 05 04 Feb 03 06 Feb 03
ALERTS:
01 Feb 03: Flare Alert
01 Feb 03: Geomagnetic
02 Feb 03: Geomagnetic
03 Feb 03: Geomagnetic
04 Feb 03: Geomagnetic
10 Feb 03: Geomagnetic
18 Feb 03: Geomagnetic
27 Feb 03: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
06 Feb 03: SWF Alert (0339-0359 UT)
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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