[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - June 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 7 10:00:30 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - JUNE 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Jun 112 12 57
02-Jun 121 23 81
03-Jun 115 18 65
04-Jun 106 15 69
05-Jun 114 11 55
06-Jun 126 11 67
07-Jun 133 14 68
08-Jun 153 19 69
09-Jun 158 20 84
10-Jun 177 13 79
11-Jun 193 9 89
12-Jun 164 4 84
13-Jun 151 6 84
14-Jun 134 22 84
15-Jun 129 17 86
16-Jun 123 26 80
17-Jun 122 25 84
18-Jun 120 29 74
19-Jun 123 12 62
20-Jun 117 10 62
21-Jun 115 18 72
22-Jun 110 13 67
23-Jun 114 13 67
24-Jun 115 20 92
25-Jun 116 16 72
26-Jun 119 17 80
27-Jun 124 19 92
28-Jun 124 23 85
29-Jun 127 18 78
30-Jun 128 15 75
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 106.2 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 102.7 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 98.7 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 94.6 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 90.5 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 85.3 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 82.1 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 79.9p 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 75.7p 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 70.9p 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 66.6p 14.7 88.7 15
May 03 116.7 55.2 62.8p 17.5 72.9 12
Jun 03 129.4 77.4 59.5p 16.3 75.4 42
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57* 41* 42* 26* 15* 14* 23* 18* 20* 20* 20* 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108* 120 157 152 129 130* 146* 138* 123* 129* 136* 141*
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113* 142 151 156* 162*
2002 169* 172* 165 137 128 119 111 127 130 112* 105 115*
2003 109* 92* 83* 83* 74^ 68^ 63^ 58^ 54^ 50^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
Solar activity was at mostly moderate to high levels until
17 June, afterwhich activity decreased to low levels. A total
of 37 M class flares and five X class flares were observed.
The X class events were observed on 9,10,11 and 15 Jun.
The largest flare for the month was an X1.7 at 2139UT on
9 Jun. The weak proton event observed over 18-19 June, is
believed associated with the M6.8 flare on 17 June.
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
01 Jun 03 M1.4 0306UT
01 Jun 03 M1.0 1250UT
01 Jun 03 M1.4/SF 1652UT
01 Jun 03 M1.0 2105UT
02 Jun 03 M6.5/SF 0022UT 0007-0043UT
02 Jun 03 M3.9/SF 0837UT 0812-0852UT
02 Jun 03 M1.8/SF 1733UT
06 Jun 03 M1.0/1F 2338UT
08 Jun 03 M4.0/2N 1611UT 1605-1615UT
09 Jun 03 M4.7/1N 1128UT 1121-1133UT
09 Jun 03 X1.7 2139UT 2131-2143UT
09 Jun 03 M1.4 2231UT
10 Jun 03 M2.0/1N 0254UT
10 Jun 03 M2.7/1N 0837UT
10 Jun 03 M5.1/2N 1112UT 1055-1115UT
10 Jun 03 M2.2 1300UT
10 Jun 03 M2.2/SF 1436UT
10 Jun 03 M1.0/SF 1624UT
10 Jun 03 M3.9 1630UT 1628-1632UT
10 Jun 03 M5.6 1815UT 1808-1826UT
10 Jun 03 X1.3 0002UT 2319-0012UT
11 Jun 03 M1.8/SF 0306UT
11 Jun 03 M1.1/SF 1033UT
11 Jun 03 M1.4 1109UT
11 Jun 03 M2.7 1321UT
11 Jun 03 M3.7/SF 1527UT 1437-1547UT
11 Jun 03 M4.5 1636UT 1621-1650UT
11 Jun 03 M1.8/1F 1743UT
11 Jun 03 X1.6 /1N 2014UT 2001-2027UT
11 Jun 03 M2.9/SF 2151UT
11 Jun 03 X1.3 /2B 0002UT 2319-0012UT
12 Jun 03 M7.3/1F 0130UT 0104-0152UT
12 Jun 03 M1.0/SF 1403UT
12 Jun 03 M1.1/SF 1712UT
12 Jun 03 M2.6 2127UT
13 Jun 03 M3.1 0204UT 0154-0213UT
13 Jun 03 M1.7/SF 0437UT
13 Jun 03 M1.8/SF 0645UT
14 Jun 03 M1.5 0609UT
15 Jun 03 X1.3 /SF 2356UT 2325-0025UT
16 Jun 03 M1.7/SF 1200UT
17 Jun 03 M6.8 2255UT 2227-2312UT
10Mev Proton/PCA Event
Began Ended
18 06 2003 2050UT 19 06 2003 1540UT
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
01-04 Jun 03: Active periods
07-10 Jun 03: Active periods
14-16 Jun 03: Active to minor storm periods
17-19 Jun 03: Active, with Minor to major storm periods
21-30 Jun 03: Active periods
Broad periods of elevated background geomagnetic
activity continued this month. This activity is
associated with coronal hole high speed wind
streams. A weak shock was observed in the solar
wind at approximately 0429UT on 18 Jun. This shock
was most likely from the X1 flare late on 15 Jun,
and was superimposed on an already fast background
solar wind from a coronal hole high speed
wind stream. The most disturbed day of the month
was 18 Jun, when the local A index reached 29.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
05 Jun 03: Depressed 15% local day, spread F local night southern Aus region
09-10 Jun 03: Spread F local night hours southern Aus region
17-18 Jun 03: Depressed 15-25% local day, spread F local night southern Aus region
The strongest depression for the month was observed during the period
17-18 Jun when southern region MUFs were depressed 15-25% during
local daylight hours. This depression response was in association with
geomagnetic activity induced from both a weak coronal mass ejection
arrival and a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Northern Australian
region MUFs remained near or above predicted monthly values. Mild
depressions and local night degradations were observed on other days
also in association with coronal hole high speed wind stream induced
geomagnetic activity.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
01 Jun 03 42 02 Jun 03 04 Jun 03
02 Jun 03 43 03 Jun 03 05 Jun 03
12 Jun 03 44 12 Jun 03 14 Jun 03
16 Jun 03 45 16 Jun 03 18 Jun 03
17 Jun 03 46 17 Jun 03 17 Jun 03
18 Jun 03 47 19 Jun 03 21 Jun 03
18 Jun 03 48 19 Jun 03 21 Jun 03
18 Jun 03 49 19 Jun 03 19 Jun 03
26 Jun 03 50 27 Jun 03 29 Jun 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
16 Jun 03 22 16 Jun 03 16 Jun 03
17 Jun 03 23 17 Jun 03 17 Jun 03
18 Jun 03 24 19 Jun 03 21 Jun 03
18 Jun 03 25 19 Jun 03 21 Jun 03
23 Jun 03 26 23 Jun 03 25 Jun 03
25 Jun 03 27 28 Jun 03 30 Jun 03
ALERTS:
01 Jun 03: Flare Alert
01 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
02 Jun 03: Flare Alert
02 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
02 Jun 03: Flare Alert
03 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
06 Jun 03: Flare Alert
08 Jun 03: Flare Alert
09 Jun 03: Flare Alert
09 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
10 Jun 03: Flare Alert
11 Jun 03: Flare Alert
12 Jun 03: Flare Alert
13 Jun 03: Flare Alert
15 Jun 03: Flare Alert
16 Jun 03: Flare Alert
16 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
17 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
18 Jun 03: Flare Alert
18 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
19 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
24 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
26 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
28 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
30 Jun 03: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
12 Jun 03: SWF Alert (0104-0314 UT)
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