[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - December 2
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 2 12:06:11 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - DECEMBER 2002
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Dec 150 18 90
02-Dec 146 13 105
03-Dec 146 12 112
04-Dec 149 13 130
05-Dec 149 7 122
06-Dec 148 12 130
07-Dec 151 29 114
08-Dec 154 13 88
09-Dec 156 7 142
10-Dec 161 7 139
11-Dec 152 8 148
12-Dec 153 4 151
13-Dec 167 4 155
14-Dec 186 13 129
15-Dec 203 10 100
16-Dec 203 7 145
17-Dec 213 6 156
18-Dec 197 7 152
19-Dec 193 31 153
20-Dec 197 12 97
21-Dec 184 22 122
22-Dec 172 17 155
23-Dec 159 22 134
24-Dec 147 16 102
25-Dec 132 10 109
26-Dec 127 14 138
27-Dec 117 29 134
28-Dec 117 14 112
29-Dec 115 10 109
30-Dec 114 9 93
31-Dec 115 7 92
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Dec 01 235.6 131.8 114.7 12.6 144.7 46
Jan 02 226.8 113.9 113.5 10.9 155.7 21
Feb 02 205.2 108.0 114.7 11.1 154.4 19
Mar 02 179.5 98.1 113.3 10.4 165.1 15
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 110.4 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 108.8 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 106.2 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 102.4p 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 99.2p 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 96.5p 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 93.0p 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 88.3p 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 84.8p 13.0 124.5 10
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 133 128 148 139 123* 129* 135* 141
2001 129 129 135 123 111 131 111 112 143 151 154 160
2002 167 172* 167* 137 129 111 105* 129* 132 113* 95^ 90^
2003 86^ 81^ 74^ 68^ 64^ 61^ 58^ 55^ 52^ 50^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
04 Dec 02 M2.5/2N 2249UT
10 Dec 02 M1.1 1226UT
16 Dec 02 M2.5/1N 1115UT
16 Dec 02 M1.9/1N 2255UT
16 Dec 02 M1.3/SF 2336UT
17 Dec 02 M1.6/SF 2335UT
18 Dec 02 M2.4/1N 0642UT
19 Dec 02 M2.7/2N 2153UT
20 Dec 02 M6.8/SF 1318UT 1313-1320UT
22 Dec 02 M1.1/2F 0252UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at mostly low to moderate levels this month.
A total of 10 M class xray flare events were observed. No X class
flare activity was observed. High solar activity was observed
on 20 Dec due to an M6.8 flare at 1318UT on this day. This flare
was the largest xray event for the month.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
01 Dec 02: Mostly unsettled to active
07 Dec 02: Unsettled to Minor Storm
19 Dec 02: Unsettled to Minor Storm
21 Dec 02: Quiet to Major Storm
22 Dec 02: Quiet to Active
23 Dec 02: Unsettled to Active
24 Dec 02: Quiet to Active
27 Dec 02: Unsettled to Minor Storm
28 Dec 02: Unsettled
Activity on 01,07,19-22,27-28 Dec are believed to be
associated with solar coronal holes. Activity during period
23-24 Dec is believed to be associated with weak coronal
mass ejection activity superimposed on a weak coronal
hole signature. The appearance of coronal holes on the
Sun has increased in recent months and is generally
considered a feature of the declining phase of a
solar cycle.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
08 Dec 02: Depressed 15% early in UT day.
15 Dec 02: Depressed 10-15% at some sites.
20 Dec 02: Depressed 10-15%
24 Dec 02: Depressed 15-30% early in UT day, southern Aus/NZ region.
30-31 Dec 02: Depressed 10-15% at some sites.
Mild to moderate ionospheric MUF depressions, mostly
confined to southern Aus/NZ region, were observed on the
above days. The deepest depressions for the month
were observed early in the UT day, at southern
Aus sites, on 24 Dec.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
07 Dec 02 76 08 Dec 02 08 Dec 02
15 Dec 02 77 18 Dec 02 19 Dec 02
19 Dec 02 78 20 Dec 02 20 Dec 02
21 Dec 02 79 22 Dec 02 23 Dec 02
23 Dec 02 80 24 Dec 02 24 Dec 02
25 Dec 02 81 28 Dec 02 29 Dec 02
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
15 Dec 02 44 18 Dec 02 19 Dec 02
20 Dec 02 45 21 Dec 02 22 Dec 02
23 Dec 02 46 23 Dec 02 24 Dec 02
25 Dec 02 47 27 Dec 02 28 Dec 02
ALERTS:
07 Dec 02: Geomagnetic
08 Dec 02: Geomagnetic
16 Dec 02: Flare Alert
17 Dec 02: Flare Alert
18 Dec 02: Flare Alert
19 Dec 02: Geomagnetic
19 Dec 02: Flare Alert
20 Dec 02: Geomagnetic
21 Dec 02: Geomagnetic
27 Dec 02: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
None Issued.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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