[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - January 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 4 10:14:29 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - JANUARY 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Jan 115 7 117
02-Jan 118 7 126
03-Jan 138 20 100
04-Jan 143 15 57
05-Jan 148 12 111
06-Jan 162 5 114
07-Jan 163 7 128
08-Jan 174 6 129
09-Jan 183 5 142
10-Jan 185 13 145
11-Jan 189 8 92
12-Jan 173 10 77
13-Jan 172 7 119
14-Jan 164 13 127
15-Jan 150 10 141
16-Jan 145 6 131
17-Jan 142 13 124
18-Jan 137 16 111
19-Jan 130 18 111
20-Jan 138 18 102
21-Jan 134 15 124
22-Jan 130 18 135
23-Jan 136 18 99
24-Jan 130 19 118
25-Jan 129 20 108
26-Jan 125 17 87
27-Jan 121 14 82
28-Jan 126 11 112
29-Jan 124 16 125
30-Jan 121 22 97
31-Jan 120 14 69
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Jan 02 226.8 113.9 113.5 10.9 155.7 21
Feb 02 205.2 108.0 114.7 11.1 154.4 19
Mar 02 179.5 98.1 113.3 10.4 165.1 15
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 110.4 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 108.8 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 106.2 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 102.7 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 99.7p 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 97.0p 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 93.5p 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 88.8p 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 85.3p 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 82.4p 12.9 111.6 7
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 128 148 139 123 129 135 141
2001 129 130* 135* 123 111 131 111 112 143 151 154 159
2002 169 172 167 137 128* 119* 111* 132* 138* 120* 113* 120*
2003 94^ 88^ 81^ 75^ 69^ 63^ 58^ 55^ 52^ 50^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
07 Jan 03 M1.0/1F 0750UT
07 Jan 03 M4.9/SF 2333UT 2325-2340UT
21 Jan 03 M1.9 1526UT
22 Jan 03 M1.2/1F 0444UT
23 Jan 03 M1.0 0448UT
23 Jan 03 M2.5/1N 1243UT
24 Jan 03 M1.9/1N 0327UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at predominately low levels this month. The largest
flare for the month was an M4.9 flare at 2333UT on 07 Jan. Only 7
M class events were observed this month. No X class events were
observed.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
03-04 Jan 03: Quiet to Active.
18-22 Jan 03: Unsettled to Active.
23-25 Jan 03: Unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor storm activity.
26 Jan 03: Quiet to active.
29 Jan 03: Quiet to Active.
30 Jan 03: Unsettled to Minor Storm levels.
Coronal holes were the main origin of geomagnetic activity this month, with
a broad period of elevated activity extending from 19 to 26 Jan. The most
disturbed day was on 30 Jan with a local A index of 22.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
04 Jan 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 20%
Southern region MUFs depressed 12%
11 Jan 03: Western region MUFs depressed 20%
12 Jan 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 23%
18 Jan 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 30% 00-05UT
26 Jan 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 18% 00-09UT
27 Jan 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 27%
31 Jan 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 17%
The above periods of ionospheric depressions mostly
followed coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity.
Depressed conditions on 11-12 Jan did not appear to be
asociated with any geomagnetic activity. In particular
MUFs at Darwin in Northern Australia were depressed by
up to 40% in the interval 03-07UT during these periods.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
03 Jan 03 01 04 Jan 03 04 Jan 03
11 Jan 03 02 11 Jan 03 11 Jan 03
23 Jan 03 03 23 Jan 03 25 Jan 03
30 Jan 03 04 31 Jan 03 31 Jan 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
17 Jan 03 01 18 Jan 03 20 Jan 03
21 Jan 03 02 23 Jan 03 24 Jan 03
ALERTS:
03 Jan 03: Geomagnetic
07 Jan 03: Flare Alert
19 Jan 03: Geomagnetic
21 Jan 03: Flare Alert
22 Jan 03: Geomagnetic
23 Jan 03: Flare Alert
24 Jan 03: Flare Alert
30 Jan 03: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
08 Jan 03: SWF Alert (2329-0009 UT)
24 Jan 03: SWF Alert (0314-0344 UT)
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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