[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - November 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 2 09:43:14 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - NOVEMBER 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Nov 210 18 88
02-Nov 190 15 63
03-Nov 167 10 66
04-Nov 168 31 101
05-Nov 114 6 99
06-Nov 98 11 87
07-Nov 91 7 94
08-Nov 93 11 90
09-Nov 93 19 72
10-Nov 95 22 33
11-Nov 96 34 24
12-Nov 99 19 19
13-Nov 102 33 27
14-Nov 99 24 -1
15-Nov 98 32 35
16-Nov 104 31 40
17-Nov 121 21 50
18-Nov 144 16 53
19-Nov 155 9 93
20-Nov 175 85 48
21-Nov 177 43 -45
22-Nov 176 21 96
23-Nov 178 17 54
24-Nov 177 11 95
25-Nov 171 16 91
26-Nov 171 7 114
27-Nov 175 6 120
28-Nov 168 9 116
29-Nov 166 6 100
30-Nov 153 14 103
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 85.3 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 82.1 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 81.0 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 78.6 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 74.2 15.4 90.9 9
Apr 03 126.5 60.0 70.4 14.7 88.7 15
May 03 116.7 55.2 67.9 17.5 72.9 12
Jun 03 129.4 77.4 65.8p 16.3 75.4 43
Jul 03 127.8 85.0 63.9p 13.3 76.7 7
Aug 03 122.1 72.7 63.3p 16.2 68.4 4
Sep 03 112.3 48.8 63.4p 14.5 67.0 1
Oct 03 153.1 65.6 62.9p 23.6 66.6 45
Nov 03 140.8 67.2 62.4p 20.1 70.6 29
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 130 146 138 123 129 136 141
2001 130 131 135 123 112 132 112 113 144 151 156 162
2002 174 174 167 139 130 123 115* 126* 129 112 109 118
2003 112 92 82* 73* 64* 71* 73* 62* 57* 64* 53^ 50^
2004 47^ 44^ 41^ 38^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
01 Nov 03 M1.3 0852UT
01 Nov 03 M1.1/SF 1751UT
01 Nov 03 M3.2/1N 2238UT 2226-2249UT
02 Nov 03 M1.8 1247UT
02 Nov 03 X8.3 /2B 1725UT 1703-1739UT 1703-1739UT
02 Nov 03 M3.2/1N 2238UT 2226-2249UT
03 Nov 03 X2.7 /2B 0130UT 0109-0145UT
03 Nov 03 X3.9 /2F 0955UT 0943-1019UT 0943-1019UT
03 Nov 03 M3.9/SF 1532UT 1526-1543UT
04 Nov 03 M2.6 0556UT
04 Nov 03 M3.0 1022UT 1011-1033UT
04 Nov 03 M1.1 1349UT
04 Nov 03 X17.4 /3B 1953UT 1929-2006UT 1929-2006UT
05 Nov 03 M1.6/SF 0241UT
05 Nov 03 M5.3/SF 1052UT 1046-1056UT
11 Nov 03 M1.6/SF 1351UT
13 Nov 03 M1.6 0501UT
13 Nov 03 M1.4 0929UT
17 Nov 03 M1.2 0134UT
17 Nov 03 M4.2/1N 0905UT 0855-0919UT
18 Nov 03 M1.8 0139UT
18 Nov 03 M3.2/2N 0752UT 0723-0806UT
18 Nov 03 M3.9 0831UT 0812-0859UT
18 Nov 03 M4.5 1011UT 0923-1101UT
19 Nov 03 M1.7/1N 0401UT
20 Nov 03 M1.4/1N 0212UT
20 Nov 03 M9.6/2B 0747UT 0735-0753UT
20 Nov 03 M5.8 2353UT 2342-2358UT
21 Nov 03 M5.8/2B 2353UT 2342-2358UT
10Mev Proton Events
Begin End
01 11 2003 1015UT 01 11 2003 1040UT
02 11 2003 1120UT 04 11 2003 2120UT
04 11 2003 2225UT 07 11 2003 0925UT
22 11 2003 0020UT 22 11 2003 0350UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity varied from very low to high activity this month. High
solar activity was observed during intervals 2-5 Nov and 20-21 Nov.
These periods of activity were predominately due to the same solar regions.
High activity early in the month was due to continued flaring from
solar regions 484, 486 and 488 which were reported in last months summary.
A total of 29 flares were observed for November, 25 M class flares and
4 X class flares. The largest flare for the month was an X17.4 flare at
1953UT on 04 Nov. This flare saturated the GOES xray detector and had an
estimated magnitude of X28. This flare was from region 486 located on
the solar west limb at the time of the event. These active regions did
return to the solar disk later in the month, 484 as region 501 on 13 Nov,
486 as region 508 and 488 as region 507 on 17/18 Nov. However, activity
was much less significant, particularly from region 486 (508), with only
returning 484 (501) producing significant flare activity. This region
produced the M9 event on 20 Nov.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
01 Nov 03: Active periods first half in UT day.
04 Nov 03: Major Storm periods observed first half of UT day.
09 Nov 03: Unsettled to Active with one minor storm period.
10-14 Nov 03: Active to minor storm conditions
15-16 Nov 03: Active to major Storm conditions
17-18 Nov 03: Unsettled to Active
20 Nov 03: Severe storm levels second half of UT day.
21 Nov 03: Major Storm first half of UT day.
22 Nov 03: Unsettled to active, brief minor storm period.
23 Nov 03: Quiet to Active
25 Nov 03: Quiet to Active
The strongest disturbed day was observed on 20 Nov with an observed
local A index of 85. This activity is believed associated with M3.2, M3.9
xray flares and coronal mass ejection(s) observed on 18 Nov. An extended
period of coronal hole high speed wind stream induced activity was observed
from 10-18 Nov. In addition a coronal mass ejection may have increased activity
on 15-16 Nov.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
12 Nov 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 30%
13 Nov 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 20%
14 Nov 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 40%
Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
16 Nov 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 15%
Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
18 Nov 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
21 Nov 03: Regional MUFs depressed 40%
23 Nov 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
Ionospheric MUFs were severely depressed, by up to
40%, on 21 Nov. This depression followed coronal
mass ejection induced severe geomagnetic storm activity.
The regional daily T index fell to -45 on this day.
Also, a broad period of lower than normal MUFs was
observed 10-18Nov due to geomagnetic activity
induced by a solar coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Depressed southern region MUFs on 23 Nov followed
coronal mass ejection induced geomagnetic activity.
Transpolar HF circuits may have been degraded by
increased absorption during interval 04-07 Nov.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
03 Nov 03 83 03 Nov 03 05 Nov 03
07 Nov 03 84 11 Nov 03 13 Nov 03
09 Nov 03 85 10 Nov 03 11 Nov 03
14 Nov 03 86 14 Nov 03 15 Nov 03
16 Nov 03 87 16 Nov 03 17 Nov 03
18 Nov 03 88 19 Nov 03 21 Nov 03
21 Nov 03 89 21 Nov 03 21 Nov 03
22 Nov 03 90 22 Nov 03 24 Nov 03
22 Nov 03 91 22 Nov 03 23 Nov 03
23 Nov 03 92 23 Nov 03 23 Nov 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
03 Nov 03 53 04 Nov 03 05 Nov 03
07 Nov 03 54 10 Nov 03 13 Nov 03
19 Nov 03 55 19 Nov 03 21 Nov 03
22 Nov 03 56 22 Nov 03 23 Nov 03
ALERTS:
01 Nov 03: Flare Alert
01 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
02 Nov 03: Flare Alert
03 Nov 03: Flare Alert
04 Nov 03: Flare Alert
04 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
05 Nov 03: Flare Alert
05 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
06 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
09 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
10 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
11 Nov 03: Flare Alert
11 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
12 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
13 Nov 03: Flare Alert
13 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
14 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
15 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
16 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
17 Nov 03: Flare Alert
18 Nov 03: Flare Alert
19 Nov 03: Flare Alert
20 Nov 03: Flare Alert
20 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
21 Nov 03: Flare Alert
21 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
22 Nov 03: Geomagnetic
26 Nov 03: Flare Alert
27 Nov 03: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
03 Nov 03: SWF Alert (0104-0319 UT)
05 Nov 03: SWF Alert (0239-0249 UT)
21 Nov 03: SWF Alert (2344-0009 UT)
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