[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - March 03

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 2 10:36:44 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - MARCH 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

              SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day      10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Mar         138       14       66
02-Mar         147       11       89
03-Mar         149       16       96
04-Mar         146       21       97
05-Mar         149       13      113
06-Mar         150       17       86
07-Mar         150       11       88
08-Mar         148       10      107
09-Mar         153        8      124
10-Mar         144       12      128
11-Mar         142       12       90
12-Mar         138        8      107
13-Mar         134       11      123
14-Mar         139       19      133
15-Mar         131       21      107
16-Mar         129       20       79
17-Mar         125       22       77
18-Mar         118       23       86
19-Mar         108       12       78
20-Mar          97       24       78
21-Mar          91       22       25
22-Mar          89       13       69
23-Mar          93       17       84
24-Mar          98        9       78
25-Mar         109        4       85
26-Mar         127        7       95
27-Mar         141       21       99
28-Mar         147       17       63
29-Mar         155       19       93
30-Mar         155       20       98
31-Mar         160       23       78


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Mar 02     179.5     98.1    113.3     10.4    165.1   15
Apr 02     189.5    120.4    110.4     11.2    143.2   17
May 02     178.4    120.8    108.8      8.4    133.0   16
Jun 02     148.8     88.5    106.2      6.2    113.9    4
Jul 02     174.5     99.9    102.7      8.8    108.6   35
Aug 02     184.0    116.4     98.7     11.2    133.5   45
Sep 02     175.9    109.3     94.6      9.8    137.7   12
Oct 02     167.0     97.5     90.8p    15.7    119.7   22
Nov 02     168.7     95.0     86.1p    14.5    121.1   11
Dec 02     157.2     81.6     82.6p    13.0    124.5   10
Jan 03     144.0     79.5     79.8p    12.9    111.6    7
Feb 03     125.0     46.2     75.5p    15.7     95.5    3
Mar 03     132.3     61.5     70.7p    15.4     90.9    9


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57    41    42    26    15    14    23    18    20    20    20    20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89    92   123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   129   128   148   139   123   129   135   141  
2001   130*  131*  135*  123*  112*  132*  110*  111*  142*  151*  155   159* 
2002   169*  172*  165*  137*  128   119   111   127*  130*  114*  107   122  
2003   112    88*   83^   77^   71^   66^   59^   55^   51^   49^   47^   45^ 
2004    43^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly 
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric 
stations worldwide.  These records become available from IPS 
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the 
majority are received up to one year later.  This means that 
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not 
available until some months later.
 
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by 
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices 
for all solar cycles since 1938.  The IPS T-indices may not be 
updated each month but only when sufficient new 
data becomes available.

===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
17 Mar 03	            X1.5 /1B    1905UT    1850-1916UT
18 Mar 03	 M1.6/1N            	0037UT
18 Mar 03	 M2.5/1B            	0600UT
18 Mar 03	            X1.5 /1B    1208UT    1151-1220UT
19 Mar 03	 M1.5               	0307UT
19 Mar 03	 M1.6/2F            	0646UT
19 Mar 03	 M3.7/1N            	0953UT    0934-1000UT
19 Mar 03	 M1.4/2F            	1332UT
20 Mar 03	 M1.5/1F            	1131UT


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar flare activity during the month of March was mostly due to solar
region 314. This region emerged in the middle of the solar disk
on 14 Mar and rapidly grew. This region produced all 9 xray flare 
events greater than the M1 level for the month during the interval 
17-20 Mar. 7 M class flares, and 2 X1 class flares were observed.
Region 314 is due back to the south-east limb of the Sun on 04 Apr. 
Also, coronal holes were frequently observed on the solar disk.


===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
03-06 Mar 03:  Active periods.
14-23 Mar 03:  Unsettled to Active, with isolated minor storm periods.
27-31 Mar 03:  Unsettled to Active, with isolated minor storm periods.

Coronal hole high speed wind streams produced 3 broad periods
of moderatetly elevarted geomagnetic activity this month. A 
possible weak shock was observed early in the UT day on 20 Mar 
from the X1 flare on 18 Mar.

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
   01 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
   01 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
06-07 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
   11 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
   21 Mar 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 35%
	      Southern region MUFs depressed 30%
   28 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 20%

Lower than normal MUFs were observed on the above days.
Depressions were generally in response to coronal
hole high speed wind stream induced activity. The 
strongest depression were observe don 21 and 28 Mar
with local T indices of 25 and 63 respectively.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
04 Mar 03	13	04 Mar 03	05 Mar 03
06 Mar 03	14	06 Mar 03	06 Mar 03
07 Mar 03	15	07 Mar 03	07 Mar 03
08 Mar 03	16	08 Mar 03	08 Mar 03
11 Mar 03	17	11 Mar 03	11 Mar 03
12 Mar 03	18	12 Mar 03	14 Mar 03
14 Mar 03	19	15 Mar 03	15 Mar 03
16 Mar 03	20	17 Mar 03	17 Mar 03
18 Mar 03	21	18 Mar 03	19 Mar 03
18 Mar 03	22	19 Mar 03	20 Mar 03
20 Mar 03	23	21 Mar 03	21 Mar 03
27 Mar 03	24	28 Mar 03	28 Mar 03
31 Mar 03	25	01 Apr 03	01 Apr 03



GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
04 Mar 03	06	04 Mar 03	04 Mar 03
12 Mar 03	07	13 Mar 03	15 Mar 03
16 Mar 03	08	18 Mar 03	20 Mar 03
21 Mar 03	09	21 Mar 03	21 Mar 03


ALERTS: 
03 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
04 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
17 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
17 Mar 03: Flare Alert
18 Mar 03: Flare Alert
19 Mar 03: Flare Alert
20 Mar 03: Flare Alert
20 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
21 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
23 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
27 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
28 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
29 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
30 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
31 Mar 03: Geomagnetic


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
NONE ISSUED


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 



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