[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - March 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 2 10:36:44 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - MARCH 2003
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Mar 138 14 66
02-Mar 147 11 89
03-Mar 149 16 96
04-Mar 146 21 97
05-Mar 149 13 113
06-Mar 150 17 86
07-Mar 150 11 88
08-Mar 148 10 107
09-Mar 153 8 124
10-Mar 144 12 128
11-Mar 142 12 90
12-Mar 138 8 107
13-Mar 134 11 123
14-Mar 139 19 133
15-Mar 131 21 107
16-Mar 129 20 79
17-Mar 125 22 77
18-Mar 118 23 86
19-Mar 108 12 78
20-Mar 97 24 78
21-Mar 91 22 25
22-Mar 89 13 69
23-Mar 93 17 84
24-Mar 98 9 78
25-Mar 109 4 85
26-Mar 127 7 95
27-Mar 141 21 99
28-Mar 147 17 63
29-Mar 155 19 93
30-Mar 155 20 98
31-Mar 160 23 78
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Mar 02 179.5 98.1 113.3 10.4 165.1 15
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 110.4 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 108.8 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 106.2 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 102.7 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 98.7 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 94.6 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 90.8p 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 86.1p 14.5 121.1 11
Dec 02 157.2 81.6 82.6p 13.0 124.5 10
Jan 03 144.0 79.5 79.8p 12.9 111.6 7
Feb 03 125.0 46.2 75.5p 15.7 95.5 3
Mar 03 132.3 61.5 70.7p 15.4 90.9 9
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 129 128 148 139 123 129 135 141
2001 130* 131* 135* 123* 112* 132* 110* 111* 142* 151* 155 159*
2002 169* 172* 165* 137* 128 119 111 127* 130* 114* 107 122
2003 112 88* 83^ 77^ 71^ 66^ 59^ 55^ 51^ 49^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
17 Mar 03 X1.5 /1B 1905UT 1850-1916UT
18 Mar 03 M1.6/1N 0037UT
18 Mar 03 M2.5/1B 0600UT
18 Mar 03 X1.5 /1B 1208UT 1151-1220UT
19 Mar 03 M1.5 0307UT
19 Mar 03 M1.6/2F 0646UT
19 Mar 03 M3.7/1N 0953UT 0934-1000UT
19 Mar 03 M1.4/2F 1332UT
20 Mar 03 M1.5/1F 1131UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar flare activity during the month of March was mostly due to solar
region 314. This region emerged in the middle of the solar disk
on 14 Mar and rapidly grew. This region produced all 9 xray flare
events greater than the M1 level for the month during the interval
17-20 Mar. 7 M class flares, and 2 X1 class flares were observed.
Region 314 is due back to the south-east limb of the Sun on 04 Apr.
Also, coronal holes were frequently observed on the solar disk.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
03-06 Mar 03: Active periods.
14-23 Mar 03: Unsettled to Active, with isolated minor storm periods.
27-31 Mar 03: Unsettled to Active, with isolated minor storm periods.
Coronal hole high speed wind streams produced 3 broad periods
of moderatetly elevarted geomagnetic activity this month. A
possible weak shock was observed early in the UT day on 20 Mar
from the X1 flare on 18 Mar.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
01 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
01 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
06-07 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
11 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%
21 Mar 03: Northern region MUFs depressed 35%
Southern region MUFs depressed 30%
28 Mar 03: Southern region MUFs depressed 20%
Lower than normal MUFs were observed on the above days.
Depressions were generally in response to coronal
hole high speed wind stream induced activity. The
strongest depression were observe don 21 and 28 Mar
with local T indices of 25 and 63 respectively.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
04 Mar 03 13 04 Mar 03 05 Mar 03
06 Mar 03 14 06 Mar 03 06 Mar 03
07 Mar 03 15 07 Mar 03 07 Mar 03
08 Mar 03 16 08 Mar 03 08 Mar 03
11 Mar 03 17 11 Mar 03 11 Mar 03
12 Mar 03 18 12 Mar 03 14 Mar 03
14 Mar 03 19 15 Mar 03 15 Mar 03
16 Mar 03 20 17 Mar 03 17 Mar 03
18 Mar 03 21 18 Mar 03 19 Mar 03
18 Mar 03 22 19 Mar 03 20 Mar 03
20 Mar 03 23 21 Mar 03 21 Mar 03
27 Mar 03 24 28 Mar 03 28 Mar 03
31 Mar 03 25 01 Apr 03 01 Apr 03
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
04 Mar 03 06 04 Mar 03 04 Mar 03
12 Mar 03 07 13 Mar 03 15 Mar 03
16 Mar 03 08 18 Mar 03 20 Mar 03
21 Mar 03 09 21 Mar 03 21 Mar 03
ALERTS:
03 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
04 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
17 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
17 Mar 03: Flare Alert
18 Mar 03: Flare Alert
19 Mar 03: Flare Alert
20 Mar 03: Flare Alert
20 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
21 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
23 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
27 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
28 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
29 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
30 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
31 Mar 03: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
NONE ISSUED
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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