[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - August 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 4 10:44:14 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - AUGUST 2002
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Aug 193 17 126
02-Aug 180 22 127
03-Aug 168 12 118
04-Aug 151 10 106
05-Aug 142 5 103
06-Aug 145 3 99
07-Aug 136 4 102
08-Aug 135 3 110
09-Aug 140 12 114
10-Aug 148 10 130
11-Aug 172 13 139
12-Aug 184 12 127
13-Aug 192 7 131
14-Aug 208 11 132
15-Aug 210 19 137
16-Aug 214 14 141
17-Aug 227 9 152
18-Aug 241 16 148
19-Aug 237 20 153
20-Aug 228 12 159
21-Aug 220 20 153
22-Aug 220 10 150
23-Aug 225 7 151
24-Aug 196 6 153
25-Aug 179 7 150
26-Aug 169 18 149
27-Aug 161 13 152
28-Aug 163 8 137
29-Aug 169 9 137
30-Aug 170 8 127
31-Aug 180 9 125
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Aug 01 163.2 106.8 113.6 8.0 113.3 23
Sep 01 233.3 150.7 114.1 9.3 146.8 48
Oct 01 208.2 125.6 114.0 15.8 149.8 36
Nov 01 212.7 106.5 115.6 16.1 156.1 47
Dec 01 235.6 131.8 114.7 12.6 144.7 46
Jan 02 226.8 113.9 113.5 10.9 155.7 21
Feb 02 205.2 108.0 114.7 11.1 154.4 19
Mar 02 179.5 98.1 112.3p 10.4 165.1 15
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 107.6p 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 104.6p 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 101.2p 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 97.2p 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 94.0p 11.2 133.5 45
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89* 92* 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 133 133 148 139* 124 130 137 141
2001 129 127 133 122 110 131* 111 112 143 151 154 160
2002 168* 171* 169* 140* 128* 111* 102* 104^ 96^ 88^ 82^ 78^
2003 73^ 70^ 67^ 64^ 62^ 59^ 57^ 54^ 52^ 49^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
03 Aug 02 X1.0 /SF 1907UT 1859-1911UT
04 Aug 02 M6.6 0955UT 0858-1033UT
05 Aug 02 M1.0 2122UT
07 Aug 02 M1.1 0126UT
13 Aug 02 M1.8/1F 1904UT
14 Aug 02 M2.3/1N 0212UT
14 Aug 02 M1.4/1F 1815UT
15 Aug 02 M1.0/SF 0605UT
16 Aug 02 M2.4/SF 0611UT
16 Aug 02 M5.2/2N 1232UT 1132-1307UT
16 Aug 02 M1.2 2212UT
16 Aug 02 M1.7/SF 2333UT
17 Aug 02 M1.1/SF 0108UT
17 Aug 02 M3.4/SF 2051UT 2039-2057UT
18 Aug 02 M2.3 1005UT
18 Aug 02 M1.9/SF 1439UT
18 Aug 02 M2.2/1B 2125UT
19 Aug 02 M2.0/SF 1034UT
19 Aug 02 M3.1/1B 2102UT 2056-2106UT
20 Aug 02 M5.0/1N 0140UT 0133-0143UT
20 Aug 02 M1.4/1N 0257UT
20 Aug 02 M3.4/1B 0826UT 0822-0830UT
20 Aug 02 M1.2/1F 2114UT
21 Aug 02 M1.4/SF 0141UT
21 Aug 02 X1.0 /1B 0534UT 0528-0536UT
22 Aug 02 M5.4/2B 0157UT 0147-0205UT
22 Aug 02 M1.2/1N 1802UT
23 Aug 02 M1.7/2N 0549UT
23 Aug 02 M1.5/1N 0946UT
23 Aug 02 M1.2/SF 1200UT
23 Aug 02 M1.5/2N 1314UT
23 Aug 02 M1.4/2F 2021UT
24 Aug 02 X3.1 /1F 0112UT 0049-0131UT 0049-0131UT
24 Aug 02 M1.8/1N 0548UT
24 Aug 02 M1.5 1128UT
25 Aug 02 M1.1/SF 1853UT
25 Aug 02 M1.9/SF 2346UT
26 Aug 02 M1.8/SF 0103UT
28 Aug 02 M1.3 1658UT
28 Aug 02 M4.6/SF 1859UT 1852-1906UT
28 Aug 02 M1.1 2145UT
29 Aug 02 M1.6 0253UT
29 Aug 02 M1.8 0506UT
29 Aug 02 M3.2/SF 1252UT 1242-1256UT
30 Aug 02 X1.5 /SN 1329UT 1247-1335UT
10Mev Proton Events
Begin End
14 08 2002 1245UT 14 08 2002 1350UT
14 08 2002 1545UT 14 08 2002 1825UT
22 08 2002 0445UT 23 08 2002 0050UT
24 08 2002 0140UT 26 08 2002 1315UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at increased levels this month, with
a total of 45 flares for the month, comprising 41 M-flares,
and 4 X-flares. The largest flare for the month was an X3.1 on
Aug 24.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
01 Aug 02: Quiet to Active
02 Aug 02: Quiet to Minor Storm
15 Aug 02: Quiet to Active
18 Aug 02: Quiet to Minor Storm
19 Aug 02: Quiet to Active
21 Aug 02: Quiet to Active
26 Aug 02: Quiet to Minor Storm
Moderate disturbances were observed on 02, 19 and 21 Aug, with the
local A index reaching 22, 20 and 20 respectively.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
03 Aug 02: 15% depressed south of Hobart.
06 Aug 02: 15% depressed northern Australian region.
16 Aug 02: 10-15% depressed south of Hobart.
21 Aug 02: 10-15% depressed south of Hobart.
No significant ionospheric MUF depressions were observed in the
Australian/NZ region during the month of August, probably due
to seasonal factors (depressions were stronger in the northern
hemisphere following days of increased geomagnetic activity).
However, degraded HF communication quality may have been experienced
during local night hours on the above dates, for southern Aus/NZ region.
Also, polar HF circuits may have experienced increased absorption on 14,
22, and 24 Aug, due to solar proton events starting on these days.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
13 Aug 02 37 13 Aug 02 15 Aug 02
15 Aug 02 38 16 Aug 02 18 Aug 02
16 Aug 02 39 18 Aug 02 19 Aug 02
18 Aug 02 40 19 Aug 02 21 Aug 02
22 Aug 02 41 22 Aug 02 24 Aug 02
25 Aug 02 42 25 Aug 02 27 Aug 02
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
02 Aug 02 27 02 Aug 02 02 Aug 02
15 Aug 02 28 15 Aug 02 17 Aug 02
16 Aug 02 29 18 Aug 02 19 Aug 02
23 Aug 02 30 24 Aug 02 27 Aug 02
ALERTS:
01 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
02 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
03 Aug 02: Flare Alert
04 Aug 02: Flare Alert
13 Aug 02: Flare Alert
14 Aug 02: Flare Alert
15 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
16 Aug 02: Flare Alert
16 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
16 Aug 02: Flare Alert
17 Aug 02: Flare Alert
18 Aug 02: Flare Alert
18 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
19 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
20 Aug 02: Flare Alert
21 Aug 02: Flare Alert
21 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
22 Aug 02: Flare Alert
22 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
23 Aug 02: Flare Alert
24 Aug 02: Flare Alert
26 Aug 02: Flare Alert
26 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
28 Aug 02: Flare Alert
29 Aug 02: Flare Alert
30 Aug 02: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
21 Aug 02: SWF Alert (0529-0549 UT)
22 Aug 02: SWF Alert (0149-0224 UT)
24 Aug 02: SWF Alert (0054-0354 UT)
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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