[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - August 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 4 10:44:14 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - AUGUST 2002
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

              SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day       10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Aug         193       17      126
02-Aug         180       22      127
03-Aug         168       12      118
04-Aug         151       10      106
05-Aug         142        5      103
06-Aug         145        3       99
07-Aug         136        4      102
08-Aug         135        3      110
09-Aug         140       12      114
10-Aug         148       10      130
11-Aug         172       13      139
12-Aug         184       12      127
13-Aug         192        7      131
14-Aug         208       11      132
15-Aug         210       19      137
16-Aug         214       14      141
17-Aug         227        9      152
18-Aug         241       16      148
19-Aug         237       20      153
20-Aug         228       12      159
21-Aug         220       20      153
22-Aug         220       10      150
23-Aug         225        7      151
24-Aug         196        6      153
25-Aug         179        7      150
26-Aug         169       18      149
27-Aug         161       13      152
28-Aug         163        8      137
29-Aug         169        9      137
30-Aug         170        8      127
31-Aug         180        9      125

          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Aug 01     163.2    106.8    113.6      8.0    113.3   23
Sep 01     233.3    150.7    114.1      9.3    146.8   48
Oct 01     208.2    125.6    114.0     15.8    149.8   36
Nov 01     212.7    106.5    115.6     16.1    156.1   47
Dec 01     235.6    131.8    114.7     12.6    144.7   46
Jan 02     226.8    113.9    113.5     10.9    155.7   21
Feb 02     205.2    108.0    114.7     11.1    154.4   19
Mar 02     179.5     98.1    112.3p    10.4    165.1   15
Apr 02     189.5    120.4    107.6p    11.2    143.2   17
May 02     178.4    120.8    104.6p     8.4    133.0   16
Jun 02     148.8     88.5    101.2p     6.2    113.9    4
Jul 02     174.5     99.9     97.2p     8.8    108.6   35
Aug 02     184.0    116.4     94.0p    11.2    133.5   45

               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57    41    42    26    15    14    23    18    20    20    20    20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    70    74    93  
1999    94    81    89    77    98   124   124   105    89*   92*  123   113  
2000   108   120   157   152   133   133   148   139*  124   130   137   141  
2001   129   127   133   122   110   131*  111   112   143   151   154   160  
2002   168*  171*  169*  140*  128*  111*  102*  104^   96^   88^   82^   78^ 
2003    73^   70^   67^   64^   62^   59^   57^   54^   52^   49^   47^   45^ 
2004    43^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
03 Aug 02	            X1.0 /SF    1907UT    1859-1911UT
04 Aug 02	 M6.6               	0955UT    0858-1033UT
05 Aug 02	 M1.0               	2122UT
07 Aug 02	 M1.1               	0126UT
13 Aug 02	 M1.8/1F            	1904UT
14 Aug 02	 M2.3/1N            	0212UT
14 Aug 02	 M1.4/1F            	1815UT
15 Aug 02	 M1.0/SF            	0605UT
16 Aug 02	 M2.4/SF            	0611UT
16 Aug 02	 M5.2/2N            	1232UT    1132-1307UT
16 Aug 02	 M1.2               	2212UT
16 Aug 02	 M1.7/SF            	2333UT
17 Aug 02	 M1.1/SF            	0108UT
17 Aug 02	 M3.4/SF            	2051UT    2039-2057UT
18 Aug 02	 M2.3               	1005UT
18 Aug 02	 M1.9/SF            	1439UT
18 Aug 02	 M2.2/1B            	2125UT
19 Aug 02	 M2.0/SF            	1034UT
19 Aug 02	 M3.1/1B            	2102UT    2056-2106UT
20 Aug 02	 M5.0/1N            	0140UT    0133-0143UT
20 Aug 02	 M1.4/1N            	0257UT
20 Aug 02	 M3.4/1B            	0826UT    0822-0830UT
20 Aug 02	 M1.2/1F            	2114UT
21 Aug 02	 M1.4/SF            	0141UT
21 Aug 02	            X1.0 /1B    0534UT    0528-0536UT
22 Aug 02	 M5.4/2B            	0157UT    0147-0205UT
22 Aug 02	 M1.2/1N            	1802UT
23 Aug 02	 M1.7/2N            	0549UT
23 Aug 02	 M1.5/1N            	0946UT
23 Aug 02	 M1.2/SF            	1200UT
23 Aug 02	 M1.5/2N            	1314UT
23 Aug 02	 M1.4/2F            	2021UT
24 Aug 02	            X3.1 /1F    0112UT    0049-0131UT    0049-0131UT
24 Aug 02	 M1.8/1N            	0548UT
24 Aug 02	 M1.5               	1128UT
25 Aug 02	 M1.1/SF            	1853UT
25 Aug 02	 M1.9/SF            	2346UT
26 Aug 02	 M1.8/SF            	0103UT
28 Aug 02	 M1.3               	1658UT
28 Aug 02	 M4.6/SF            	1859UT    1852-1906UT
28 Aug 02	 M1.1               	2145UT
29 Aug 02	 M1.6               	0253UT
29 Aug 02	 M1.8               	0506UT
29 Aug 02	 M3.2/SF            	1252UT    1242-1256UT
30 Aug 02	            X1.5 /SN    1329UT    1247-1335UT

           10Mev Proton Events
       Begin                    End
14 08 2002 1245UT       14 08 2002 1350UT
14 08 2002 1545UT       14 08 2002 1825UT
22 08 2002 0445UT       23 08 2002 0050UT
24 08 2002 0140UT       26 08 2002 1315UT

2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at increased levels this month, with
a total of 45 flares for the month, comprising 41 M-flares, 
and 4 X-flares. The largest flare for the month was an X3.1 on 
Aug 24.

===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
01 Aug 02:     Quiet to Active
02 Aug 02:     Quiet to Minor Storm
15 Aug 02:     Quiet to Active
18 Aug 02:     Quiet to Minor Storm
19 Aug 02:     Quiet to Active
21 Aug 02:     Quiet to Active
26 Aug 02:     Quiet to Minor Storm

Moderate disturbances were observed on 02, 19 and 21 Aug, with the
local A index reaching 22, 20 and 20 respectively.
===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
03 Aug 02: 15% depressed south of Hobart.
06 Aug 02: 15% depressed northern Australian region.
16 Aug 02: 10-15% depressed south of Hobart.
21 Aug 02: 10-15% depressed south of Hobart.

No significant ionospheric MUF depressions were observed in the
Australian/NZ region during the month of August, probably due
to seasonal factors (depressions were stronger in the northern
hemisphere following days of increased geomagnetic activity). 
However, degraded HF communication quality may have been experienced 
during local night hours on the above dates, for southern Aus/NZ region. 
Also, polar HF circuits may have experienced increased absorption on 14, 
22, and 24 Aug, due to solar proton events starting on these days.
===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
13 Aug 02	37	13 Aug 02	15 Aug 02
15 Aug 02	38	16 Aug 02	18 Aug 02
16 Aug 02	39	18 Aug 02	19 Aug 02
18 Aug 02	40	19 Aug 02	21 Aug 02
22 Aug 02	41	22 Aug 02	24 Aug 02
25 Aug 02	42	25 Aug 02	27 Aug 02

GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
02 Aug 02	27	02 Aug 02	02 Aug 02
15 Aug 02	28	15 Aug 02	17 Aug 02
16 Aug 02	29	18 Aug 02	19 Aug 02
23 Aug 02	30	24 Aug 02	27 Aug 02


ALERTS: 
01 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
02 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
03 Aug 02: Flare Alert
04 Aug 02: Flare Alert
13 Aug 02: Flare Alert
14 Aug 02: Flare Alert
15 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
16 Aug 02: Flare Alert
16 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
16 Aug 02: Flare Alert
17 Aug 02: Flare Alert
18 Aug 02: Flare Alert
18 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
19 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
20 Aug 02: Flare Alert
21 Aug 02: Flare Alert
21 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
22 Aug 02: Flare Alert
22 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
23 Aug 02: Flare Alert
24 Aug 02: Flare Alert
26 Aug 02: Flare Alert
26 Aug 02: Geomagnetic
28 Aug 02: Flare Alert
29 Aug 02: Flare Alert
30 Aug 02: Flare Alert


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
21 Aug 02: SWF Alert (0529-0549 UT)
22 Aug 02: SWF Alert (0149-0224 UT)
24 Aug 02: SWF Alert (0054-0354 UT)


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