[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - May 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 3 10:46:57 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - MAY 2002
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-May 162 4 137
02-May 169 3 133
03-May 179 3 134
04-May 190 3 134
05-May 180 0 132
06-May 191 7 140
07-May 187 8 151
08-May 187 7 159
09-May 190 5 157
10-May 191 15 157
11-May 188 24 145
12-May 183 13 124
13-May 172 8 129
14-May 161 16 137
15-May 159 11 138
16-May 158 6 129
17-May 157 4 120
18-May 163 10 120
19-May 171 7 142
20-May 171 9 123
21-May 186 6 125
22-May 181 7 127
23-May 180 42 123
24-May 189 3 126
25-May 183 2 121
26-May 183 5 128
27-May 187 13 125
28-May 186 8 132
29-May 185 4 126
30-May 180 5 123
31-May 182 2 125
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
May 01 148.7 97.3 108.7 7.1 118.0 11
Jun 01 173.7 134.0 109.8 5.9 135.8 13
Jul 01 131.3 82.2 111.7 6.5 113.6 2
Aug 01 163.2 106.8 113.6 8.0 113.3 23
Sep 01 233.3 150.7 114.1 9.3 146.8 48
Oct 01 208.2 125.6 114.0 15.8 149.8 36
Nov 01 212.7 106.5 115.6 16.1 156.1 47
Dec 01 235.6 131.8 114.8p 12.6 144.7 46
Jan 02 226.8 113.9 113.3p 10.9 155.7 21
Feb 02 205.2 108.0 112.7p 11.1 154.4 19
Mar 02 179.5 98.1 109.1p 10.4 165.1 15
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 104.5p 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 101.5p 8.4 133.0 16
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 69 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 123 124* 105* 89 91 123 113*
2000 108 120 158 154 133 133 147 140 124 130 137 140
2001 133 127 137 122 113* 134* 112* 114* 143* 151* 158* 145*
2002 155* 151* 159* 119^ 113^ 107^ 100^ 93^ 86^ 81^ 78^ 75^
2003 72^ 69^ 67^ 64^ 61^ 59^ 57^ 54^ 52^ 49^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
07 May 02 M1.4 0346UT
08 May 02 M1.4 0346UT
11 May 02 M1.4/SF 1132UT
15 May 02 M1.0/SF 0813UT
17 May 02 M1.5 0123UT
17 May 02 M1.5 0754UT
17 May 02 M2.9/SF 1608UT
20 May 02 M4.7 1029UT 1014-1034UT
20 May 02 M5.0 1053UT 1049-1056UT
20 May 02 X2.1 /2N 1527UT 1521-1531UT
21 May 02 M1.5/2F 2139UT
24 May 02 M1.1 0646UT
27 May 02 M2.0/2F 1810UT
30 May 02 M1.3 0532UT
30 May 02 M1.6/SF 1724UT
31 May 02 M2.4 0016UT
10 MeV Proton Events:
Begin End
22 05 2002 1820UT 24 05 2002 1400UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at low to moderate levels for most of the month.
Activity became high on 20 May, due to an impulsive X2.1 event at
1527UT. This was the largest flare for the month. A total of 16 xray
events were observed for the month, 15 M class and 1 X class. A large
solar filament rapidly erupted from the south-west quadrant of the
solar disk on 22 May. The proton event 22-24 May is believed to be
associated with this erupting solar filament and possibly an earlier M1.5
flare/mass ejection on 21 May.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
10 May 02: Active periods following weak sudden impulse in
IPS magnetometer data of 18nT at 1124UT.
11 May 02: Isolated minor storm periods following weak sudden impulse
in IPS magnetometer data of 18nT at 1015UT.
14 May 02: Active periods.
18 May 02: Weak sudden impulse of 23nT observed in IPS magnetometer
data at 2009UT. No significant activity followed impulse.
20 May 02: Weak sudden impulse of 16nT observed in IPS magnetometer
data at 0341UT. No significant activity followed impulse.
23 May 02: Major Storm levels following weak sudden impulse of 36nT observed
at 1051UT, and moderate sudden impulse of 56nT observed at
1544UT.
27 May 02: Active periods.
The most significant disturbance for the month was observed on
23 May, with the local A index reaching 42. This disturbance
is believed to be primarily due to the fast erupting solar filament
on 22 May. An earlier mass ejection on 21 May may have contributed
to this activity.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
12 May 02 Southern region MUFs depressed 15-20% local day.
23-24 May 02 Degraded conditions local night hours 23 May.
Depressed regional MUFs 15-30% local day 24 May.
The strongest ionospheric disturbance for the month was observed
during interval 23-24 May. This disturbance followed geomagnetic
storm activity on 23 May. High latitude/polar HF circuits were
degraded by proton event 22-24 May.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
07 May 02 19 09 May 02 10 May 02
12 May 02 20 12 May 02 12 May 02
15 May 02 21 15 May 02 15 May 02
16 May 02 22 18 May 02 19 May 02
17 May 02 23 17 May 02 19 May 02
20 May 02 24 21 May 02 23 May 02
21 May 02 25 24 May 02 25 May 02
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
07 May 02 15 09 May 02 10 May 02
16 May 02 16 18 May 02 19 May 02
20 May 02 17 20 May 02 20 May 02
21 May 02 18 24 May 02 25 May 02
29 May 02 19 30 May 02 31 May 02
ALERTS:
07 May 02: Flare Alert
11 May 02: Geomagnetic
17 May 02: Flare Alert
20 May 02: Flare Alert
21 May 02: Flare Alert
23 May 02: Geomagnetic
24 May 02: Geomagnetic
27 May 02: Flare Alert
30 May 02: Flare Alert
31 May 02: Flare Alert
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS - None Issued.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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