[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - November 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 2 10:37:16 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - NOVEMBER 2002
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
SOLAR AUST AUST
Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX
01-Nov 162 7 103
02-Nov 165 19 173
03-Nov 169 22 113
04-Nov 177 16 100
05-Nov 183 21 132
06-Nov 185 14 135
07-Nov 190 11 144
08-Nov 189 6 156
09-Nov 191 6 170
10-Nov 191 15 168
11-Nov 185 16 150
12-Nov 178 15 129
13-Nov 182 13 114
14-Nov 184 11 162
15-Nov 198 12 144
16-Nov 199 7 127
17-Nov 185 8 140
18-Nov 179 11 127
19-Nov 168 13 53
20-Nov 159 19 84
21-Nov 151 38 61
22-Nov 149 18 120
23-Nov 148 14 104
24-Nov 146 14 105
25-Nov 137 15 102
26-Nov 142 9 103
27-Nov 143 21 103
28-Nov 140 15 80
29-Nov 141 14 117
30-Nov 146 14 114
10 CM SUNSPOT SUNSPOT AUST AUST No of
FLUX NUMBER NUMBER A-INDEX T INDEX FLARES
Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0
Month Average Average Average Average Average
Nov 01 212.7 106.5 115.6 16.1 156.1 47
Dec 01 235.6 131.8 114.7 12.6 144.7 46
Jan 02 226.8 113.9 113.5 10.9 155.7 21
Feb 02 205.2 108.0 114.7 11.1 154.4 19
Mar 02 179.5 98.1 113.3 10.4 165.1 15
Apr 02 189.5 120.4 110.4 11.2 143.2 17
May 02 178.4 120.8 108.8 8.4 133.0 16
Jun 02 148.8 88.5 106.0p 6.2 113.9 4
Jul 02 174.5 99.9 102.0p 8.8 108.6 35
Aug 02 184.0 116.4 98.8p 11.2 133.5 45
Sep 02 175.9 109.3 96.0p 9.8 137.7 12
Oct 02 167.0 97.5 92.5p 15.7 119.7 22
Nov 02 168.7 95.0 87.9p 14.5 121.1 11
Monthly T indices
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1992 153 172 155 134 95 80 88 66 68 66 84 90
1993 74 77 79 63 63 64 62 50 37 40 34 43
1994 57 41 42 26 15 14 23 18 20 20 20 20
1995 24 33 23 13 3 11 13 10 13 9 13 7
1996 12 7 4 2 5 2 3 4 4 3 11 15
1997 14 11 10 8 11 5 9 17 32 27 28 38
1998 40 41 43 56 46 56 76 75 86 70 74 93
1999 94 81 89 77 98 124 124 105 89 92 123 113
2000 108 120 157 152 133 128 148 139 123* 129* 135* 141
2001 129 129 135 123 111 131 111 112 143 151 154 160
2002 167 172* 167* 137 129 111 105* 129* 132 113* 95^ 90^
2003 86^ 81^ 74^ 68^ 64^ 61^ 58^ 55^ 52^ 50^ 47^ 45^
2004 43^ 41^ 39^ 37^ 35^ 33^ 31^ 29^ 28^ 26^ 24^ 23^
2005 21^ 20^ 19^ 17^ 16^ 15^ 14^ 13^ 12^ 11^ 10^ 9^
2006 8^ 8^ 7^ 6^ 6^ 5^ 5^ 5^ 4^ 4^ 4^ 4^
2007 4^ 5^ 5^ 6^ 7^ 8^ 9^ 11^ 13^ 16^ 18^ 21^
2008 25^ 28^ 32^ 36^ 41^ 45^ 50^ 54^ 59^ 64^ 68^ 73^
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.
The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly
median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric
stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS
stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the
majority are received up to one year later. This means that
the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not
available until some months later.
The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by
using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices
for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be
updated each month but only when sufficient new
data becomes available.
===============================================================================
2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS
DATE CLASS M CLASS X FLARE FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
FLARES FLARES MAX DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
03 Nov 02 M1.3/1F 1403UT
09 Nov 02 M4.6/2B 1323UT 1308-1336UT
10 Nov 02 M2.4/2N 0321UT
11 Nov 02 M2.9/1N 0733UT
11 Nov 02 M1.8/1N 1620UT
12 Nov 02 M2.9/1N 1856UT
14 Nov 02 M1.0 2226UT
15 Nov 02 M2.4 0124UT
17 Nov 02 M2.0/SF 1454UT
18 Nov 02 M7.4/1F 0208UT 0201-0211UT
20 Nov 02 M1.4/SN 1807UT
10MeV Proton Events
Began Ended
09 11 2002 1950UT 11 11 2002 0600UT
2.1 Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was at mostly low to moderate levels this
month. High activity was observed on 18 Nov due to a M7.4
xray event at 0208UT. This flare was the largest event for the
month. A total of 11 M class events were observed during
the month. No X class events were observed. The proton event
was associated with the M4 flare on 09 Nov.
===============================================================================
3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
DATE COMMENTS
02-06 Nov 02: Predominately active
10-12 Nov 02: Isolated active periods
20 Nov 02: Active periods following weak impulse of 13nT at 1108UT.
21 Nov 02: Minor to Major Storm levels first half of UT day.
22 Nov 02: Active periods
25 Nov 02: Active periods
27 Nov 02: Active to minor storm periods early in UT day following weak sudden impulse
of 10nT at 2150UT on 26 Nov.
The strongest disturbance for the month was observed on 21 Nov when the
local A index reached 38. This activity is believed associated with the
Earth's entry into a solar coronal hole high speed wind stream.
===============================================================================
4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Australian Region)
04 Nov 02: Southern region MUFs depressed 15%.
19 Nov 02: Regional MUFs depressed 30% local day.
21 Nov 02: Southern region MUFs depressed 20% local day.
22 Nov 02: Northern region MUFs depressed -17%.
Southern region MUFs enhanced 28%.
28 Nov 02: Depressed 15-20% southern region.
The deepest depression for the month of November was observed
on the 19th, with a regional T index of 53. Ionospheric disturbance
on 22 Nov was unusual with southern Aus/NZ regional MUFs enhanced, and
northern Aus MUFs depressed.
===============================================================================
5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED
WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
02 Nov 02 63 03 Nov 02 03 Nov 02
03 Nov 02 64 04 Nov 02 04 Nov 02
11 Nov 02 65 11 Nov 02 13 Nov 02
13 Nov 02 66 16 Nov 02 17 Nov 02
14 Nov 02 67 14 Nov 02 15 Nov 02
15 Nov 02 68 16 Nov 02 18 Nov 02
19 Nov 02 69 19 Nov 02 20 Nov 02
19 Nov 02 70 19 Nov 02 20 Nov 02
21 Nov 02 71 21 Nov 02 21 Nov 02
22 Nov 02 72 22 Nov 02 22 Nov 02
23 Nov 02 73 24 Nov 02 24 Nov 02
26 Nov 02 74 26 Nov 02 27 Nov 02
29 Nov 02 75 30 Nov 02 03 Dec 02
GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE NO BEGIN END
11 Nov 02 39 11 Nov 02 13 Nov 02
13 Nov 02 40 15 Nov 02 17 Nov 02
20 Nov 02 41 21 Nov 02 23 Nov 02
26 Nov 02 42 26 Nov 02 27 Nov 02
29 Nov 02 43 30 Nov 02 03 Dec 02
ALERTS:
03 Nov 02: Flare Alert
09 Nov 02: Flare Alert
10 Nov 02: Flare Alert
10 Nov 02: Geomagnetic
11 Nov 02: Flare Alert
11 Nov 02: Flare Alert
12 Nov 02: Flare Alert
15 Nov 02: Flare Alert
17 Nov 02: Flare Alert
18 Nov 02: Flare Alert
20 Nov 02: Geomagnetic
21 Nov 02: Geomagnetic
21 Nov 02: Geomagnetic
22 Nov 02: Geomagnetic
27 Nov 02: Geomagnetic
SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
10 Nov 02: SWF Alert (0309-0344 UT)
15 Nov 02: SWF Alert (0109-0149 UT)
18 Nov 02: SWF Alert (0204-0219 UT)
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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