[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - August 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 3 12:39:01 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - AUGUST 2001
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES
             SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day      10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Aug         120       13       94
02-Aug         121        6       95
03-Aug         132        9      104
04-Aug         148        5       93
05-Aug         156       12      112
06-Aug         164       17      110
07-Aug         166        6      114
08-Aug         167        4      102
09-Aug         163        5      102
10-Aug         160        5      108
11-Aug         165        2      112
12-Aug         160        9      113
13-Aug         152       12      128
14-Aug         147        8      127
15-Aug         147        3      115
16-Aug         143        1      120
17-Aug         145       24      109
18-Aug         156       10      118
19-Aug         158        9      115
20-Aug         156        4      106
21-Aug         160        8      120
22-Aug         162       12      119
23-Aug         170        4      119
24-Aug         175        2      113
25-Aug         199        5      108
26-Aug         190        9      124
27-Aug         192       11      128
28-Aug         199        8      137
29-Aug         197        5      120
30-Aug         199       10      113
31-Aug         189       10      114


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Aug 00     163.1    130.5    118.4     10.7    145.9    3
Sep 00     182.1    109.9    116.1     13.1    132.1   15
Oct 00     167.8    100.1    114.4     12.0    133.4   11
Nov 00     178.8    106.5    112.7     14.4    135.4   23
Dec 00     173.0    104.5    112.1      8.2    143.0    7
Jan 01     166.7     95.1    108.8      8.4    139.2    8
Feb 01     147.3     80.1    104.2      7.0    137.2    1
Mar 01     177.7    114.2    103.3p    14.0    142.6   36
Apr 01     178.3    108.2    103.6p    14.4    129.4   45
May 01     148.7     97.3    104.0p     7.1    118.0   11
Jun 01     173.7    134.0    104.0p     5.9    135.8   13
Jul 01     131.3     82.2    104.3p     6.5    113.6    2
Aug 01     163.2    106.8    105.5p     8.0    113.3   23


               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   172   155   134    95    80    88    66    68    66    84    90  
1993    74    77    79    63    63    64    62    50    37    40    34    43  
1994    57    41    42    26    15    14    23    18    20    20    20    20  
1995    24    33    23    13     3    11    13    10    13     9    13     7  
1996    12     7     4     2     5     2     3     4     4     3    11    15  
1997    14    11    10     8    11     5     9    17    32    27    28    38  
1998    40    41    43    56    46    56    76    75    86    69    74*   93* 
1999    94    82    89    78   100   124   124*  106    89    91   123*  113  
2000   108*  120*  158*  154*  133*  133   147   140   124   131   137   140  
2001   132*  130*  143*  123   112*  135*  114^  111^  108^  105^  103^  100^ 
2002    97^   96^   94^   92^   90^   88^   86^   84^   81^   79^   76^   74^ 
2003    71^   69^   66^   64^   61^   59^   57^   54^   52^   49^   47^   45^ 
2004    43^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
05 Aug 01	 M1.7               	1531UT
05 Aug 01	 M4.9               	2224UT    2216-2229UT
07 Aug 01	 M1.1/SF            	0737UT
21 Aug 01	 M1.5               	2157UT
22 Aug 01	 M1.0               	1216UT
24 Aug 01	 M1.1/SF            	0913UT
24 Aug 01	 M1.2               	2254UT
24 Aug 01	 M3.5/1N            	0017UT    2347-0044UT
25 Aug 01	 M1.2/SF            	0928UT
25 Aug 01	            X5.3 /3B    1645UT    1623-1704UT    1623-1704UT
25 Aug 01	 M1.2/SF            	1956UT
25 Aug 01	 M3.5/SF            	0017UT    2347-0044UT
26 Aug 01	 M1.3               	1306UT
27 Aug 01	 M1.9               	0638UT
28 Aug 01	 M1.0/1N            	0012UT
28 Aug 01	 M1.2/SF            	0840UT
28 Aug 01	 M1.1/1F            	1611UT
29 Aug 01	 M1.6/1F            	0523UT
29 Aug 01	 M1.2/1F            	1253UT
30 Aug 01	 M1.5/2N            	1757UT
30 Aug 01	 M3.0/1N            	2038UT    2034-2041UT
31 Aug 01	 M1.6/SN            	1042UT
31 Aug 01	 M2.9               	2242UT


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity was moderate on 05-06 Aug and 07 Aug due
to solar region 9557. This active region returned to the solar
disk later in the month as solar region 9591. This region
produced numerous M class events and the largest flare for 
the month, an X5.3, at 1645UT on 25 Aug. Solar regions 9600 
and 9601 also contributed to the increased flare activity 
toward the end of the month. A total of 23 flares was 
observed for the month.

Two proton events were observed during the month. The first 
event was observed 1035-1435UT on 10 Aug, the second, stronger 
event, began at 0140UT on 16 Aug and ended at 1535UT on 18 Aug.

Solar region 9591 in now in the far south-west of the solar 
disk. Region 9600 and 9601 are currently near the centre of 
the solar disk. These regions currently remain flare capable.

===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
   03 Aug 01:     Unsettled to active
05-06 Aug 01:     Unsettled to active, brief minor storm period.
12-14 Aug 01:     Unsettled to active.
   17 Aug 01:     Minor storm levels second half of UT day.
21-22 Aug 01:     Unsettled to active
   27 Aug 01:     Unsettled to active.
   30 Aug 01:     Unsettled to active.

The strongest disturbance for the month was observed on 17 Aug,
with the local A index reaching 24. This activity followed
a sudden impulse of 22nT at 1103UT on 17 Aug, and is believed 
associated with a mass ejection/erupting solar filament on 14 Aug.
The X5 flare on 25 Aug was associated with a mass ejection that
produced a sudden impulse of 25nT at 1951UT on 27 Aug. However,
no significant activity followed this impulse, due to the north-south
component of the interplantary magnetic field remaining northward.


===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
17-18 Aug: Degraded conditions local night hours.

No Significant depressions were observed in the Asutralian/New
Zealand region this month. Northern hemisphere MUFs were 
depressed 15-20% early in the UT day on 18 Aug.

===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
01 Aug 01	35	01 Aug 01	02 Aug 01
03 Aug 01	36	03 Aug 01	04 Aug 01
07 Aug 01	37	07 Aug 01	09 Aug 01
10 Aug 01	38	12 Aug 01	13 Aug 01
15 Aug 01	39	17 Aug 01	18 Aug 01
18 Aug 01	40	18 Aug 01	18 Aug 01
24 Aug 01	41	27 Aug 01	28 Aug 01
24 Aug 01	42	25 Aug 01	28 Aug 01
31 Aug 01	43	01 Sep 01	02 Sep 01

GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
03 Aug 01	24	03 Aug 01	04 Aug 01
09 Aug 01	25	12 Aug 01	14 Aug 01
10 Aug 01	26	12 Aug 01	13 Aug 01
14 Aug 01	27	17 Aug 01	18 Aug 01
18 Aug 01	28	20 Aug 01	21 Aug 01
24 Aug 01	29	27 Aug 01	28 Aug 01
25 Aug 01	30	27 Aug 01	28 Aug 01
31 Aug 01	31	01 Sep 01	02 Sep 01


ALERTS: 
03 Aug 01: Geomagnetic
05 Aug 01: Geomagnetic
05 Aug 01: Flare Alert
06 Aug 01: Geomagnetic
10 Aug 01: Proton
16 Aug 01: Proton
17 Aug 01: Geomagnetic
18 Aug 01: Geomagnetic
18 Aug 01: Proton
19 Aug 01: Geomagnetic
22 Aug 01: Geomagnetic
24 Aug 01: Flare Alert
25 Aug 01: Flare Alert
26 Aug 01: Flare Alert
27 Aug 01: Flare Alert
29 Aug 01: Flare Alert
30 Aug 01: Flare Alert


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS: None Issued.


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