[Ips-msgr] IPS Monthly Report - March 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 2 12:06:12 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY SUMMARY - MARCH 2001
ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1.     SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES

                 SOLAR    AUST       AUST
Day         10 cm flux   A-INDEX   T INDEX
01-Mar         131        6      145
02-Mar         130        9      142
03-Mar         140       11      148
04-Mar         141       17      146
05-Mar         156       11      136
06-Mar         158        5      154
07-Mar         177        7      147
08-Mar         167        7      144
09-Mar         161        5      132
10-Mar         160        5      143
11-Mar         158        2      148
12-Mar         158       10      148
13-Mar         147        7      142
14-Mar         142        6      139
15-Mar         136        1      138
16-Mar         140        2      147
17-Mar         134        3      145
18-Mar         140        5      155
19-Mar         147       23      153
20-Mar         153       50       92
21-Mar         159        7       99
22-Mar         183       10      151
23-Mar         180       21      131
24-Mar         219       12       88
25-Mar         217        4      128
26-Mar         264        4      155
27-Mar         273       20      149
28-Mar         274       27      147
29-Mar         262       13      175
30-Mar         257       10      184
31-Mar         246      113      171    (severe disturbance)


          10 CM    SUNSPOT  SUNSPOT  AUST     AUST     No of
          FLUX     NUMBER   NUMBER   A-INDEX  T INDEX  FLARES
          Monthly  Monthly  Yearly   Monthly  Monthly  >M1.0 
Month     Average  Average  Average  Average  Average 
Mar 00     208.2    138.2    119.8      8.2    147.1   38
Apr 00     184.2    125.3    120.7     10.3    154.9   11
May 00     184.5    120.8    118.9      9.7    138.7   20
Jun 00     178.8    124.9    118.6     10.0    133.5   24
Jul 00     200.0    169.1    119.6     12.8    147.3   54
Aug 00     163.1    130.5    118.4     10.7    145.9    3
Sep 00     182.1    109.9    116.1     13.1    132.1   15
Oct 00     167.8    100.1    114.7p    12.0    133.4   11
Nov 00     178.8    106.5    114.2p    14.4    135.4   23
Dec 00     173.0    104.5    113.6p     8.2    143.0    7
Jan 01     166.7     95.1    110.9p     8.4    139.2    8
Feb 01     147.3     80.1    107.8p     7.0    137.2    1
Mar 01     177.7    114.2    107.0p    14.0    142.6   36

               Monthly T indices
       Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1992   153   173   155   134    96    80    88    67    69    67    85    90  
1993    75    78    80    64    63    65    63    51    38    41    34    44  
1994    57    41    43    26    16    15    23    18    21    21    21    21  
1995    25    34    23    13     4    12    13    11    13    10    13     8  
1996    12     8     5     2     6     3     3     5     4     4    11    15  
1997    14    11    11     9    12     6     9    18    33    28    28    39  
1998    41    42*   46    57    45    57    78    77    89    71    75    94  
1999    95*   82*   90*   79    99   125   126   107    90    92   124   115  
2000   109   121*  161   156   135*  134*  149*  139*  124*  131*  142*  157* 
2001   140*  140*  122^  120^  117^  113^  109^  106^  104^  103^  102^  101^ 
2002    99^   97^   95^   93^   91^   89^   86^   84^   81^   79^   76^   74^ 
2003    71^   69^   66^   64^   61^   59^   57^   54^   52^   49^   47^   45^ 
2004    43^   41^   39^   37^   35^   33^   31^   29^   28^   26^   24^   23^ 
2005    21^   20^   19^   17^   16^   15^   14^   13^   12^   11^   10^    9^ 
2006     8^    8^    7^    6^    6^    5^    5^    5^    4^    4^    4^    4^ 
2007     4^    5^    5^    6^    7^    8^    9^   11^   13^   16^   18^   21^ 
2008    25^   28^   32^   36^   41^   45^   50^   54^   59^   64^   68^   73^ 
* = New data. T index may have changed.
^ = IPS predicted T index.

===============================================================================

2.     FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS 
DATE             CLASS M    CLASS X     FLARE     FADEOUT POSSIBLE ON
                 FLARES     FLARES      MAX       DAYLIGHT HF CIRCUIT
08 Mar 01	 M5.7/1B            	1118UT    1113-1121UT
09 Mar 01	 M1.5/1N            	0157UT
10 Mar 01	 M6.7/1B            	0405UT    0400-0407UT
20 Mar 01	 M1.1/SF            	0218UT
20 Mar 01	 M1.2/SF            	0333UT
20 Mar 01	 M1.1/SF            	1424UT
20 Mar 01	 M1.6/1F            	1507UT
20 Mar 01	 M1.5               	2104UT
21 Mar 01	 M1.1/SF            	0218UT
21 Mar 01	 M1.8/SN            	0237UT
22 Mar 01	 M1.6               	0821UT
22 Mar 01	 M1.0/SF            	1319UT
24 Mar 01	 M1.2/SF            	0138UT
24 Mar 01	 M1.7/2N            	1955UT
24 Mar 01	 M1.1/1F            	2318UT
25 Mar 01	 M2.5/2N            	0424UT
25 Mar 01	 M2.6/1N            	1116UT
26 Mar 01	 M2.7/1N            	0239UT
26 Mar 01	 M2.2/1F            	1326UT
27 Mar 01	 M2.2/1N            	1630UT
28 Mar 01	 M1.1/SF            	0158UT
28 Mar 01	 M1.3/SN            	0947UT
28 Mar 01	 M4.3/SF            	1240UT    1121-1306UT
28 Mar 01	 M1.5/1F            	1909UT
28 Mar 01	 M1.6/1N            	2247UT
28 Mar 01	 M2.2/SN            	2330UT
29 Mar 01	 M2.1/1N            	0256UT
29 Mar 01	            X1.7 /SF    1015UT    0957-1032UT
29 Mar 01	 M2.1/SF            	1135UT
29 Mar 01	 M1.6/SF            	1418UT
29 Mar 01	 M1.3               	1434UT
29 Mar 01	 M1.5/SF            	1458UT
29 Mar 01	 M1.2/SF            	1525UT
29 Mar 01	 M1.2               	2101UT
30 Mar 01	 M2.2/1N            	0515UT
31 Mar 01	 M2.1/SF            	1112UT


2.1     Comments on Solar Activity.
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels this month. Flare
activity was much more frequent this month, with a total of 36 flare 
events, 35 M class and 1 X class event. A large solar region, SEC 
number 9393, produced the X1 solar flare on 29 March. This event was 
associated with a proton event which began at 1715UT on 29 March and 
ended at 0815UT 31 March, and a halo coronal mass ejection. The 
mass ejection caused a severe geomagnetic disturbance on 31 March.
===============================================================================

3.     GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)

DATE                     COMMENTS
04 Mar 01:     Quiet to Active
19 Mar 01:     Quiet to Minor Storm
20 Mar 01:     Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels
23 Mar 01:     Quiet to Active
27 Mar 01:     Quiet to Minor Storm
28 Mar 01:     Quiet to Minor Storm. 
31 Mar 01:     Severe storm levels.

Disturbed days this month were mostly associated with coronal mass 
ejections. The storm on 31 March was very severe, and by far the strongest
for the month. The disturbance followed a sudden impulse of 75 nT at 0051UT 
on 31 March. The field was at major to severe storm levels for much of the UT 
day. Aurora sightings were reported at mid latitudes during the disturbance. 
Severe storm levels were also briefly observed on 20 March. Storm activity  
followed a sudden impulse of 20nT at 1114UT on 19 March. The storm 
intensified on 20 March due to strongly southward interplanetary 
magnetic field. 

===============================================================================

4.     IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES              (for Australian Region)
20 Mar 2001 Southern region MUFs  depressed 30%
21 Mar 2001 Southern region MUFs  depressed 30%
24 Mar 2001 Southern region MUFs  depressed 30%
31 Mar 2001 Southern region MUFs  depressed 50%,
            after 21UT.(local dawn on 01 Ap).
01 Apr 2001 Southern region MUFs depressed 50%.

Depressed conditions followed coronal mass ejection
induced disturbances. Very depressed MUFs observed
late 31 Mar-01 Apr. Absorption was observed at polar
regions 29-31 Mar, in association with a proton 
event from the X1 flare.
===============================================================================

5.     IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED

WARNINGS:
HF RADIO WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
01 Mar 01	08	 3 Mar 01	04 Mar 01
19 Mar 01	09	20 Mar 01	20 Mar 01
20 Mar 01	10	21 Mar 01	21 Mar 01
23 Mar 01	11	24 Mar 01	24 Mar 01
25 Mar 01	12	26 Mar 01	28 Mar 01
28 Mar 01	13	28 Mar 01	29 Mar 01
28 Mar 01	14	29 Mar 01	01 Apr 01
28 Mar 01	15	30 Mar 01	01 Apr 01
31 Mar 01	16	01 Apr 01	02 Apr 01

GEOMAGNETIC WARNING:
ISSUE DATE      NO       BEGIN           END
01 Mar 01	04	 2 Mar 01	03 Mar 01
16 Mar 01	05	18 Mar 01	18 Mar 01
20 Mar 01	06	20 Mar 01	21 Mar 01
27 Mar 01	07	27 Mar 01	28 Mar 01
28 Mar 01	08	29 Mar 01	31 Mar 01
30 Mar 01	09	30 Mar 01	01 Apr 01


ALERTS: 
05 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
05 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
10 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
19 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
20 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
20 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
20 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
20 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
20 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
20 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
21 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
22 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
23 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
24 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
24 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
25 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
26 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
27 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
28 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
28 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
29 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
29 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
29 Mar 01: PROTON BEGIN
30 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
31 Mar 01: GEOMAGNETIC
31 Mar 01: FLARE ALERT
31 Mar 01: PROTON END


SWF ALERTS AND DURATION REPORTS
DATE	SWF BEGIN-END (UT)
10 Mar 01: SWF ALERT (0359-0414 UT)


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