[Ips-hf-warning] IPS HF COMMS WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS HF RADIO COMMUNICATIONS WARNING 02/61
ISSUED AT 24/2221Z OCTOBER 2002
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

SOUTHERN REGION AUS/NZ MUFS DEPRESSED 30% AFTER LOCAL
DAWN. MUFS SHOW SOME RECOVERY TREND AT TIME OF ISSUE
OF WARNING. HOWEVER, LOWER THAN NORMAL MUFS ARE LIKELY
FIRST HALF OF UT DAY 25 OCTOBER. DEPRESSED MUFS FOLLOWED
UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY DUE TO EARLY ARRIVAL
OF CORONAL HOLE INDUCED ACTIVITY. LOWER THAN NORMAL
MUFS MAY BE EXPERIENCED OVER NEXT FEW DAYS.

NOTE THAT NORTHERN REGION MUFS ARE CURRENTLY ENHANCED AND
HF COMMUNICATORS WITHIN THIS REGION SHOULD USE A T OF 120.

DEGRADED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FROM 25 OCTOBER 2002
IF COMMS DIFFICULTIES EXPERIENCED TRY A LOWER FREQUENCY BAND
-------------------------------------------------------------
SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST       HF COMMS FADEOUTS             
25 Oct:  Low to moderate      Possible             

HF COMMUNICATIONS FORECAST (SOUTHERN AUSTRALIAN/NEW ZEALAND REGION)
                                   FREQUENCY BANDS  
       T-index  MUFs          2  4  6  8 12 16 22 26
-------------------------------------------------------------
25 Oct    60     -14%         2  4  6  8 12 12 16 22 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060