[Ips-hf-warning] IPS HF COMMS WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS HF RADIO COMMUNICATIONS WARNING 02/48
ISSUED AT 01/2302Z OCTOBER 2002
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTH
SOUTH COMPONENT OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD (BZ) BECOMING STRONGLY SOUTHWARD 07-16UT
ON 01 OCT. BZ IS CURRENTLY MILDLY SOUTHWARD
AND MILD GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST
TODAY.

SOUTHERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL MUFS HAVE BEEN DEPRESSED
15-20% AFTER LOCAL DAWN THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
THIS OVERNIGHT GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, NORTHERN
REGIONAL AUS MUFS HAVE REMAINED NEAR MONTHLY PREDICTED 
VALUES. COMMUNICATORS WITHIN NORTHERN AUS REGION SHOULD 
USE A T OF 90. EQUATORIAL PNG MUFS ARE CURRENTLY 30%
ENHANCED. COMMUNICATORS IN THIS REGION SHOULD USE A
T OF 130.

DEPRESSED/DEGRADED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FROM 02 OCTOBER 2002 SOUTHERN AUS/NZ REGION ONLY.

IF COMMS DIFFICULTIES EXPERIENCED TRY A LOWER FREQUENCY BAND
-------------------------------------------------------------
SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST       HF COMMS FADEOUTS             
02 Oct:  low to moderate      Possible             

HF COMMUNICATIONS FORECAST (SOUTHERN AUSTRALIAN/NEW ZEALAND REGION)
                                   FREQUENCY BANDS  
       T-index  MUFs          2  4  6  8 12 16 22 26
-------------------------------------------------------------
2 Oct    50     -20%          2  4  6  8 12 12 16 22 


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