[Ips-geo-warning] IPS GEOMAGNETIC WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 03/53
ISSUED AT 03/0025Z NOVEMBER 2003
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

Partial halo CMEs were observed from region 486 on 01 and 
02 November. The first CME, observed on 01 November, was 
associated with an M3 flare and a TypeII radio sweep. The 
second CME, observed on 02 November, was associated with 
an X8 flare and Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. The 
parameters of these events indicate a possible arrival 
time around mid-day on 04 November for both the CMEs. This
is likely to strengthen the solar wind stream and raise 
geomagnetic activity to storm leveles on 04 and 05 November.
Minor to severe storm may be observed depending on the 
orientation of the north-south component of the interplanetary
mangnetic field and the strengthening of the solar wind stream.


INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 04-05 NOVEMBER 2003
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 
04 Nov:  Minor to major storm with possibility of severe storm. 
05 Nov:  Minor to major storm.



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