[Ips-geo-warning] IPS GEOMAGNETIC WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 02/45
ISSUED AT 20/0134Z DECEMBER 2002
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

AN M2.8 XRAY FLARE AND MASS EJECTION WERE OBSERVED
AT 2153UT ON 19 DEC. AVAILABLE EVENT DATA SUGGESTS
A SHOCK ARRIVAL WINDOW 06-18UT ON 22 DEC, HOWEVER
THE MASS EJECTION MAY ARRIVE LATE IN THE UT DAY ON 
21 DEC.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL 
MASS EJECTION.  FROM LATE 21-22 DECEMBER 2002
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 
21 Dec:  Unsettled to Active, chance "early" CME arrival 
         late in UT day.
22 Dec:  Active to minor storm conditions, with major 
         storm periods expected following anticapted 
         sudden impulse early in UT day.



IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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