[Ips-geo-warning] IPS GEOMAGNETIC WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 01/40
ISSUED AT 23/0149Z OCTOBER 2001
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS CURRENTLY DISTURBED FOLLOWING
A SUDDEN IMPULSE OF 52nT AT 1648UT ON 21 OCT. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS 
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO X1 CLASS FLARES OBSERVED ON 19 OCT.
THESE EVENTS ORIGINATED FROM SOLAR REGION 9661.

TWO FURTHER SOLAR FLARE EVENTS WERE OBSERVED ON 22 OCT. 
AN X1 CLASS FLARE AT 1759UT AND A M6 CLASS FLARE AT 1508UT.
RADIO SIGNATURES OF THESE EVENTS SUGGEST MASS EJECTIONS WERE 
PROBABLE FROM THE M6 AND POSSIBLE FROM THE X1. 
THESE EVENTS ORIGINATED FROM SOLAR REGION 9672.

EVENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT TWO SHOCKS ARE POSSIBLE 
BETWEEN 24/1800Z AND 25/0600Z.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM LATE 24-26 OCTOBER 2001.
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GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 
24 Oct:  unsettled to active, declining activity until late in UT day.
25 Oct:  Active to Minor storm, major storm periods possible.
26 Oct:  initially, active declining to unsettled.   


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