[Ips-geo-warning] IPS GEOMAGNETIC WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 01/46
ISSUED AT 23/0016Z NOVEMBER 2001
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

AN M4.1 FLARE WAS OBSERVED FROM A SOLAR REGION
FAR WESTWARD ON THE SOLAR DISK AT 2036UT. RADIO DATA 
IMPLIES A CME HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS FLARE.
ANOTHER REGION FOLLOWED WITH A X1 FLARE AT 2330UT ON 22 NOV. 
THE SOLAR REGION THAT PRODUCED THIS FLARE IS IN A GOOD
GEOEFFECTIVE LOCATION. AVAILABLE RADIO SPECTROGRAPH 
DATA IMPILES A CME, ALTHOUGH NO LASCO SPACE BASED
CORONAGRAPH DATA (ENABLING DIRECT CME OBSERVATION) 
WAS AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF ISSUE OF THIS WARNING
TO CONFIRM THAT AT MASS EJECTION WAS ASSOCIATED.

A SERIES OF SHOCKS MAY BE HEADED EARTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
FROM 24-26 NOVEMBER 2001.
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GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 
24 Nov:  active
25 Nov:  Active levels, then Storm levels second half of UT day.
26 Nov:  Storm levels first half of day, then declining.

Note: Chance for severe storm periods during interval 25-26 Nov.


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