[Ips-geo-warning] IPS GEOMAGNETIC WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 01/18
ISSUED AT 07/2339Z MAY 2001
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

TWO CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED OFF THE WESTERN 
LIMB OF THE SUN ON 07 MAY. THE FIRST CME WAS OBSERVED AROUND
11UT, AND WAS SOUTH-WEST DIRECTED. THIS EVENT APPEARED NOT TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ON DISK ACTIVITY, SUGGESTING A BEHIND
THE LIMB (NON GEOEFFECTIVE) EVENT. THE SECOND CME WAS OBSERVED
AROUND 12UT AND WAS A LARGER/FASTER NORTH-WEST DIRECTED MASS
EJECTION. THIS CME APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A C4 FLARE WHICH
BEGAN AT 1136UT FROM REGION 9445 IN THE NORTH WEST QUADRANT OF THE SOLAR
DISK. 

ASSUMING, BY EVENT TIMING, THAT THE C4 EVENT DID PRODUCE THE SECOND 
CME, A GLANCING BLOW SHOCK ARRIVAL IS POSSIBLE SECOND HALF OF MAY 9.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
FROM 09-10 MAY 2001
-------------------------------------------------------------
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 
09 May:  Initially unsettled, the active to minor storm   
10 May:  Active decline to unsettled.


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060