[Ips-geo-warning] IPS GEOMAGNETIC WARNING

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 01/10
ISSUED AT 03/0247Z APRIL 2001
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

THE LARGE SOLAR REGION IN THE NORTH WEST QUADRANT OF THE 
SOLAR DISK HAS PRODUCED TWO LARGE SOLAR FLARES. AN X1.1 
AT 1014UT AND AN Y1.7 (X17) AT 2151UT ON 02APR. THIS REGION 
IS NOW QUITE FAR WEST ON THE SOLAR DISK, AND WHILST XRAY FLARE 
MAGNITUDE WAS LARGE THE REGIONS LOCATION, AND OTHER EVENT PARAMETERS,
SUGGESTS REDUCED GEOEFFECTIVENESS, AND THAT THE MAIN THRUST 
OF ANY MASS EJECTION IS MOSTLY WESTARD. HOWEVER, WE WILL 
PROBABLY RECIEVE A COMPONENT OF THE MASS EJECTION(S).

THE X1 EVENT AT 1136UT WAS REPORTEDLY FROM A NEW REGION ON THE
SOUTH EAST LIMB AND AS SUCH IS NOT CONSIDERED GEOEFFECTIVE.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR 04-05 APRIL 2001
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GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST 
04 Apr:  Initially unsettled, increasing to active
         to minor-major storm levels late in UT day.
05 Apr:  Active to minor storm, periods of major storm
         local night hours.

There is a chance for isolated severe storm periods on 05 April.


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