[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 26 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed May 27 09:30:51 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            145/99

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 26-May was at the R0 
level, with the largest flare a C9.7 flare at 26/1238UT. There 
are currently nine numbered sunspot regions on the visible solar 
disk and two unnumbered regions. Active region 4451 was responsible 
for the largest flare of the UT day. 4446 was the only numbered 
active region to show spot development over the UT day, all other 
numbered regions are either stable or in decay. Two unnumbered 
regions have developed on the solar disk, with beta magnetic 
characteristics. One is at N05W06 and the other is at N08W48. 
No regions currently visible on the solar disk are particularly 
large or magnetically complex. Solar flare activity is forecast 
to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 on 27-May. This is 
forecast to rise to R0-R1 over 28-29 May as potentially flare-active 
regions on the far side of the disk, detected by Solar Orbiter, 
rotate onto the front side of the disk. Solar radiation storm 
conditions were at the S1 level on 26-May due to a large and 
fast far side Coronal Mass Ejection. Solar radiation storm conditions 
are expected to be at the S0 level over 27-29 May, with a chance 
of S1 on 27-May due to currently elevated high energy proton 
conditions. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed on 26-May. 
A large and fast partial halo CME, directed to the northwest, 
was observed from 25/2224UT. This CME is associated with coronal 
movement behind the northwestern limb, visible in GOES SUVI and 
SDO imagery from 25/2203UT. This CME is considered a far side 
event and not geoeffective. A slow, south directed CME is visible 
from 26/1000UT in SOHO and STEREO-A. This CME is considered a 
far side event and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed was 
largely steady over the UT day 25-Mar with a jump observed at 
around 26/1850UT, possibly due to a glancing CME impact. The 
wind speed mostly ranged between 360 and 460 m/s . The wind speed 
is currently at around 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 10 nT during the UT day, with 
the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -7 and +8 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain at moderate levels 
over 27-29 May, with the possibility of mild enhancements due 
to small coronal holes approaching a geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: G0

Estimated Indices 26 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11100013
      Cocos Island         3   11110013
      Darwin               3   11100113
      Townsville           4   12100113
      Learmonth            6   21110114
      Alice Springs        3   11100113
      Gingin               5   21100024
      Canberra             3   11100013
      Kennaook Cape Grim   3   10100013
      Hobart               3   10100013    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   10000102
      Casey                6   22200114
      Mawson              25   53340136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3222 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May    12    G0, chance of G1
28 May    10    G0
29 May     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region and at the planetary level on 26-May. Mostly G0 conditions 
were reported in the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed 
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected om 27-May, 
with a chance of G1 due to recent solar wind enhancements. G0 
conditions are expected over 28-29 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0010UT 26/05, Ended at 0400UT 26/05

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal during 
UT day 26-May. Ionospheric conditions are expected to be mostly 
normal over 27-29 May, with the chance of degradations at high 
latitudes over the period.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 May    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      74
May      71
Jun      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
28 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
29 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were near predicted values on UT day 26-May. Spread-F 
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to remain near predicted monthly values over 27-29 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    71800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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