[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 24 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon May 25 09:30:50 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 May 26 May 27 May
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level throughout UT day
24-May, with only low-level C-class flares observed. There are
currently six sunspot regions on the visible solar disk, with
Active Region (AR) 4446 (S15E58, beta) being the largest. The
region has shown some minor decay in the leading spot, as it
continues to rotate onto the front side of the disk. Region 4444
(S21E30, alpha) has been reclassified, with the north-eastern
section designated AR 4447 (S17E24, beta). This newly numbered
region exhibited some growth over the past 24 hours. Mild growth
was also observed in region 4445 (N06E36, beta). All other regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity is forecast
to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over 25-26 May. This
is forecast to rise to R0-R1 on 27-May as flare-active regions
on the far side of the disk, detected by Solar Orbiter, rotate
onto the front side of the disk. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 24-May, with the solar proton flux at background
levels throughout the UT day. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are forecast for 25-27 May. No geoeffective coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed over the past 24 hours, with a CME visible
in SOHO coronagraph imagery from 24/0912UT that was considered
to be a far side event. The solar wind speed was light on 24-May,
broadly ranging between 280-330 km/s throughout the UT day. The
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 6
nT during the UT day, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging
between -5 and +4 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain light
on 25-May, before increasing to moderate levels over 26-27 May,
as a small equatorial coronal hole connects with Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: G0
Estimated Indices 24 May : A K
Australian Region 2 10101021
Cocos Island 2 00011021
Darwin 3 21101022
Townsville 2 11101021
Learmonth 2 10111021
Alice Springs 2 10101021
Gingin 3 00100032
Canberra 2 11000021
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 01001021
Hobart 2 10001021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00111011
Casey 6 22221131
Mawson 11 13212125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1111 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 May 5 G0
26 May 13 G0, slight chance of G1
27 May 14 G0, slight chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on 24-May, with G0 conditions also recorded at the planetary
level. Mostly G0 conditions were reported in the Antarctic region,
with a single G1 interval observed at Mawson. G0 conditions are
forecast on 25-May. G0, with a slight chance of G1, is forecast
on 26-27 May, with a small recurrent coronal hole expected to
connect with Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal during
UT day 24-May, with some mild degradations seen in southern hemisphere
regions. Ionospheric conditions are expected to be normal over
25-27 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible on 27-May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 May 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 74
May 71
Jun 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
27 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were largely near predicted values on UT day 24-May, with
some depressions of up to 15% seen in the Northern Australian
region during local night hours. Spread-F was observed across
the Australian region during local night hours, with strong spread-F
reported at Hobart. MUFs are expected to remain near predicted
values over 25-27 May, with isolated shortwave fadeouts possible
on 27-May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 36600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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