[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 May 26 issued 2330 UT on 20 May 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu May 21 09:30:50 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 114/65


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             108/58             115/66

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 20-May was at the R0 
level, with no significant flaring activity. There are currently 
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4441 
(N08W25, beta) showed some spot development over the UT day and 
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the solar 
disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar flare activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 21-23 
May, with a chance of R1. S0 solar radiation conditions were 
observed on UT day 20-May. S0 solar radiation conditions are 
expected over 21-23 May. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections 
(CMEs) were observed on 20-May. The solar wind speed decreased 
over 21-May. The speed ranged from 435 to 540 km/s and is currently 
near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was -4 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue 
to decline towards background levels and remain there over 21-23 
May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: G0

Estimated Indices 20 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22100001
      Cocos Island         2   12110000
      Darwin               4   22200112
      Townsville           2   22100011
      Learmonth            3   22200011
      Alice Springs        2   22100001
      Gingin               2   22100011
      Canberra             1   21100000
      Kennaook Cape Grim   2   22100000
      Hobart               3   23100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
      Macquarie Island     3   23100000
      Casey                6   33211111
      Mawson              26   64422225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              53   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             19   2344 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May     7    G0
22 May     5    G0
23 May     4    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 20-May. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed 
at Mawson at the beginning of the UT day. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 21-23 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were normal to fair over 
UT day 20-May, with degradations mostly observed in the northern 
hemisphere. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 21-23 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 May    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      74
May      71
Jun      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
22 May    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
23 May    60    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) on UT day were depressed 
by up to 20% during local night hours and by up to 15% during 
local day hours in the southern Australian region. Spread-F and 
sporadic E were observed at Hobart, with milder spread-f observed 
at Canberra and Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values over 21-23 May, with a chance 
of mild depressions, particularly in the southern Australian 
region.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 523 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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