[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 March 26 issued 2330 UT on 04 Mar 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Mar 5 10:30:49 AEDT 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   142/96             142/96             138/92

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 04-Mar was at the R0 
level, with a C3.9 flare at 04/0308UT the largest flare of the 
UT day. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions on 
the solar disk. AR4378 (N16W11, beta) and AR4385 (S08E33, beta) 
both showed minor spot development over the UT day and AR4384 
(N10E39, beta) was stable but was responsible for the largest 
flare of the day. The other numbered region appeared in decay. 
An unnumbered region is present at N12E23 with beta magnetic 
classification and is in decay. Solar flare activity is expected 
to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over 05-07 Mar. S0 
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 04-Mar. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 05-07 Mar. 
No geoeffective CMEs were observed on UT day 04-Mar. A disappearing 
solar filament is visible at around S24E65 from 04/0052UT in 
H-Alpha imagery. A narrow, southeast directed, CME is visible 
in SOHO imagery from 04/0212UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective. 
The solar wind environment on UT day 04-Mar was steady. The solar 
wind speed mostly ranged between 380 and 460 km/s and is currently 
at around 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength 
(IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) was 
+4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue to 
remain near background levels over 05-06 Mar. An increase is 
expected from 07-Mar due to an equatorial coronal hole rotating 
towards a geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: G0

Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221112
      Cocos Island         4   22121110
      Darwin               6   32121112
      Townsville           8   2-421122
      Learmonth            6   32221111
      Alice Springs        4   22221002
      Gingin               6   32121121
      Canberra             4   22121012
      Kennaook Cape Grim   6   22231112
      Hobart               5   22221112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   33231011
      Casey               17   45432122
      Mawson              13   34333222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   1322 2335     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar     5    G0
06 Mar     5    G0
07 Mar    12    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 04-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 observed 
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 05-06 Mar. 
G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on 07-Mar due 
to anticipated coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 04-Mar were 
generally normal. HF radio propagation conditions over 05-07 
Mar are expected to be mostly normal.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Mar   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      98
Mar      87
Apr      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Mar   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced during 
local daylight hours on 04-Mar. MUFs are expected to be near 
predicted values to 15% enhanced over 05-07 Mar.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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