[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 28 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Mar 1 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Feb was R0. There are three
small to medium sized solar regions visible in the eastern solar
hemisphere, AR4378 (N16E42, beta), AR4380 (S18E52, beta) and
AR4381 (N08E66, beta). Solar region AR4380 has shown slight growth.
An existing on disk region AR4379 has decayed and yesterday's
new region was numbered AR4381. There are currently three numbered
solar regions and one new unnumbered region on the solar disk.
The new region is a very small spot at N28E04, which may be numbered
if the spot persists. The largest flare for the day was a C6.4
flare at 28/0313UT from AR4380 with emission visible either side
of the neutral line within this region. Solar regions AR4378
and AR4381 produced low level C class flares. Solar activity
is expected to be R0, chance R1 over 01-03 Mar. Four small filament
eruptions were observed on 28-Feb. The first at 28/0533UT located
at N30E20 (with following minor on disk plasma motion at 28/0724UT),
the second at 28/0543UT located at N22W28, the third at 28/1729UT
located at S09W73 (associated with westward plasma ejecta) and
the fourth at 28/1828UT located at N42E20 (which was the larger
of the small filaments with a length of approximately 10 degrees).
Due to the far westward location of the third filament and the
relatively high north latitude location of the fourth filament
these are not considered likely to be geoeffective. No significantly
Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 28-Feb. However,
LASCO space based coronagraph imagery was limited on 28-Feb with
imagery only available later in the UT day. A north directed,
out of the ecliptic plane CME is evident later in the UT day,
probably associated with the filament eruption at N42E20. The
STEREO-A spaced based coronagraph showed a narrow slow CME angled
around 30-40 degrees northward out of the ecliptic plane from
28/0635UT, which may possibly be correlated with either of the
two earlier small filament eruptions 28/0533UT at N30E20 or 28/0543UT
located at N22W28. Due to the minor on disk plasma motion of
the first event a model run was conducted using the available
STEREO-A imagery assuming this location. This CME was modelled
to have a speed of only 277 km/s and the ENLIL run showed no
significant arrival at the Earth. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on UT day 28-Feb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 01-03 Mar. There are currently two polar/high
latitude coronal holes crossing the solar central meridian in
the northern and southern hemispheres. Due to the high solar
latitude, small size and lack of equatorward extension these
holes are considered insignificant. The solar wind speed exhibited
a slight declining trend on 28-Feb as the influence of a solar
coronal hole wind stream continues to gradually abate. The anticipated
28-Feb weak CME arrival was not evident in the solar wind parameters.
A small disturbance was expected from a weak CME (filament eruption
observed on 25-Feb) may possibly still arrive on 01-Mar, although
confidence of this arrival is now low. The solar wind speed ranged
between 380 and 456 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is generally
expected to continue to return to background levels over coming
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22113112
Cocos Island 5 22102122
Darwin 6 22113112
Townsville 8 -4113112
Learmonth 7 22113123
Alice Springs 5 12113012
Gingin 7 22113132
Canberra 5 12113112
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12213111
Hobart 5 12213111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 12215211
Casey 22 35533233
Mawson 30 35323356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 3222 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 12 G0
02 Mar 8 G0
03 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Feb. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 01-03 Mar. A weak CME impact which failed to eventuate
on 28-Feb may arrive on 01-Mar, possibly causing a mild increase
in geomagnetic activity, but this CME arrival is not expected
to cause any activity above G0.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 28-Feb were
fair to normal with fair conditions at high latitudes. Generally
fair to normal HF conditions are expected. HF radio propagation
conditions at middle to high latitudes are expected to become
mildly degraded on 01-Mar due to a possible weak CME arrival
(which did not eventuate on 28-Feb).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
03 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Feb near predicted monthly values to 20%
enhanced. Spread F was observed at Hobart and ionospheric scintillation
was observed 28/1236-1328UT at Darwin. MUFs are generally expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 28-Feb to 01-Mar to
03-Mar. The weak CME arrival expected on 28-Feb did not eventuate
though may possibly arrive on 01-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 94500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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