[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 June 26 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jun 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jun 22 09:30:50 AEST 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  R2

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6    0246UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M7.0    1929UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jun reached R2, with an 
M7 class solar flare (R2) from active region (AR) 4473 (S08E59, 
gamma). This region also produced an M2.7 class flare. There 
are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, 
although AR 4473 is the only region which has shown any meaningful 
change with instability in its leading spots. Solar flare activity 
is expected to be R1-R2 over 22-24 Jun due to 4473.

 A slow partial halo CME was observed associated with the M2.7 
flare, but is not expected to be geoeffective. Similarly, a partial
 halo is associated with the M7 solar flare, but there is not adequate 
imagery yet available for a full analysis. Given the location 
the CME launched from it is not expected to be significantly 
geoeffective, however. No other noteworthy CMEs were observed 
on 21-Jun. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 21-Jun. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 22-24 Jun. 

The solar wind environment on UT day 21-Jun was 
near background levels. The solar wind speed ranged between 410 
to 360 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was +7 to -6 nT. The solar wind environment is expected to 
remain mostly quiet over 22-23 Jun, but wind speeds may begin 
to become enhanced by 24-Jun due to several patchy coronal holes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100010
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11100000
      Townsville           2   12100011
      Learmonth            3   22200011
      Alice Springs        1   11100000
      Gingin               2   12100010
      Canberra             0   01000010
      Kennaook Cape Grim   1   11000010
      Hobart               0   01000010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                5   23210021
      Mawson               9   23212142

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   3222 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     3    G0
23 Jun     6    G0
24 Jun    12    G0, chance G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region and Antarctic region on UT day 21-Jun. Go geomagnetic 
conditions are mostly expected over 22-24 Jun. There is a chance 
for an isolated period of G1 on 24-Jun due to coronal hole activity.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
24 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 21-Jun were 
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to 
be normal over 22-23 Jun, but become mildly degraded by 24-Jun 
due to intermittent coronal hole connections with Earth.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Jun    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      67
Jun      68
Jul      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun    68    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 
21 June and is current for 21-23 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 21-Jun were mostly 
near predicted values. Spread-F was observed in Brisbane during 
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted 
monthly values over 22-24 Jun. Some spread-F may be present during 
local night and dawn hours on 24-Jun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    69400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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