[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 June 26 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Jun 16 09:30:48 AEST 2026

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 117/69

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   118/70             118/70             115/66

COMMENT: Solar flare activity was at the R0 level on UT day 15-Jun, 
with no significant flares observed. There are currently five 
sunspot regions on the visible solar disk, with Active Region 
(AR) 4465 (N08W25, beta-gamma) being the largest and most magnetically 
complex region. This region showed some mild growth in some trailing 
spots over the last 24 hours. New region AR 4469 appeared on 
the disk at S16E19, exhibiting a beta magnetic classification. 
All other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare 
activity is forecast to be at the R0 level over 16-18 Jun. S0 
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 15-Jun, with 
the solar proton flux consistent with background values. S0 solar 
radiation storm conditions are forecast for 16-18 Jun. No Earth-directed 
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past UT 
day. A solar eruption was observed on the western limb in GOES/SUVI 
304A imaging from 15/0352UT. An associated CME was observed in 
SOHO/LASCO imaging from 15/0536UT, which was determined to be 
a far side event and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed declined 
over 15-Jun, ranging from 450-480 km/s at the beginning of the 
UT day, and falling to 410-430 km/s by the end of the UT day. 
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at 
6 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -4 
and +6 nT over the UT day. No significant effects from a CME 
first observed on 12-Jun were observed in the solar wind over 
the previous UT day. A moderate increase in the solar wind speed 
is forecast on 16-Jun due to a small equatorial coronal hole 
high speed wind stream becoming geoeffective. The solar wind 
speed will remain elevated on 17-Jun, before beginning to decline 
on 18-Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100001
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           2   12110001
      Learmonth            2   20120011
      Alice Springs        1   11100001
      Gingin               1   11110010
      Canberra             0   01000001
      Kennaook Cape Grim   1   11000001
      Hobart               0   01000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey                8   33320112
      Mawson              15   33221054

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   2212 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun    12    G0
17 Jun    11    G0
18 Jun     8    G0

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions on UT day 15-Jun were at the 
G0 level in the Australian region, and at the planetary level. 
Mostly G0 conditions were reported in the Antarctic region, with 
an isolated G1 interval recorded at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are forecast over 16-18 Jun, with an anticipated coronal hole 
high speed wind stream not expected to produce significant geomagnetic 
activity.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: High frequency propagation conditions were mostly normal 
on UT day 15-Jun, with some mild degradations observed in the 
South American region during local night hours. Global ionospheric 
conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 16-18 Jun, with 
some mild degradations possible in high latitude regions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
15 Jun    81

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      67
Jun      68
Jul      65

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were largely near predicted values on 15-Jun, with some 
enhancements observed in the northern Australian region. Spread-F 
was observed in the southern Australian region during local night 
hours. Some MUF enhancements were observed at Niue Island, with 
some depressions and spread-F also observed during local night 
hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted over 16-18 
Jun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 499 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:   188000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au