[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 June 26 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jun 14 09:30:50 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 122/75 120/72 118/70
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 13-Jun was at the R0
level. There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. Active region (AR)
4465 (N08E04, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region
on the solar disk and continues to produce the occasional low
level C-class flare. An unnumbered region has recently developed
on the disk at around N08E55 with alpha magnetic complexity.
All numbered regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare
activity over 14-16 Jun is expected to be at the R0 level, with
a chance of R1. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 13-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 14-16 Jun. No significantly geoeffective CMEs have been
observed on 13-Jun. A west directed CME is visible in SOHO and
STEREO-A imagery from 13/1326UT. This event is associated with
an on disk eruption at around S20W70, visible from 13/1252UT
in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. Modelling suggests this
CME will pass ahead of the Earth. Two CMEs from 12-Jun have been
further analysed with new imagery. A faint, east directed CME,
visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 12/1638UT has been
modelled. This CME may produce a glancing impact with Earth on
15-Jun at 0800UT +/- 12 hours. An east directed CME, visible
in SOHO imagery from 12/1936UT is expected to pass behind the
Earth. The solar wind environment saw a step enhancement at around
13/0950UT, suggesting a weak CME impact took place. The solar
wind speed jumped up with this enhancement and then declined
over the remainder of the day. The solar wind speed mostly ranged
between 680 km/s and 525 km/s and is currently near 540 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) ranged between
+6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline slowly
over 14-Jun as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects wane,
although an increase in low energy protons measured at ACE suggests
an unexpected, weak CME impact may occur on 14-Jun. A moderate
increase is expected on 15-Jun due to a glancing impact from
a CME first observed on 12-Jun. A further increase is possible
on 16-Jun due to a small coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective
position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 11 23243222
Cocos Island 7 22232121
Darwin 7 22232221
Townsville 11 23243222
Learmonth 15 23253232
Alice Springs 10 23233222
Gingin 13 23243332
Canberra 10 23233222
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 23243332
Hobart 13 23243332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 24 22265432
Casey 25 33243463
Mawson 35 45433564
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 3443 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 16 G0, chance of G1
15 Jun 16 G0, chance of G1
16 Jun 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 37 was issued on 11 June and
is current for 12-14 Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed on UT day 13-Jun in the Australian region, with G1 conditions
observed at Learmonth. G0 conditions were observed at the planetary
level. G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected
over 14-16 Jun due to a combination of ongoing coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects and a potential unexpected CME impact
on 14-Jun. A predicted glancing CME impact on 15-Jun, and coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole on 16-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-Jun were
mostly normal, with some mild degradations during local night
hours. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
normal, with a chance of mild degradations over 14-16 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 67
Jun 68
Jul 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-Jun were mostly near predicted monthly values,
with enhancements in the northern Australian region during local
day and in the southern Australian region. Mildly degraded conditions
were observed across the Australian region during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be generally near predicted monthly
values over 14-16 Jun, with a chance of degraded conditions over
the period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 54200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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