[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 June 26 issued 2340 UT on 03 Jun 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jun 4 09:40:36 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M9.3 0136UT probable lower West Pacific
M7.7 0700UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
X1.0 1128UT probable all European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jun 05 Jun 06 Jun
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 148/102 142/96
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 03-Jun was at the R3
level with an X1.0 flare at 03/1128UT and two M-class flares
all produced by Active Region (AR) 4455 (N15W16, beta-gamma).
There are currently eight numbered active regions visible on
the solar disk. AR 4455 is the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has exhibited growth over the
UT day. Regions 4458 (S04W06, beta), 4459 (N14E36, beta) and
4462 (N19E59, beta) have also all shown some spot growth. All
other regions are either stable or in decay. Solar flare activity
is expected to be at R2 level over 04-06 Jun, with a chance of
R3, primarily due to the observed flare activity of region 4455.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 03-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 04-06 Jun.
Multiple partial halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed
over the UT day. The first was a high velocity but diffuse CME
visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 03/0202UT. The CME
is considered to be associated with the M9.3 flare from AR 4455.
Modelling indicates this CME is Earth-directed, with an estimated
arrival at Earth at 04/1400UT +/- 10 hours. Two other partial
halo CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery visible from 03/0736UT
and from 03/1148UT and are considered to be associated with the
M7.7 and X1.0 flares from AR 4455 respectively. Initial modelling
indicates these CMEs also have an Earth-directed component and
further analysis will be conducted. The solar wind speed on UT
day 04-Jun remained steady, ranging from 365 to 450 km/s and
is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -8 to +11 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase on 04-Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME
then remain elevated over 05-06 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22121122
Cocos Island 6 22221122
Darwin 7 23122122
Townsville 7 23122222
Learmonth 9 33131222
Alice Springs 6 13221122
Gingin 5 22121122
Canberra 4 12021112
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12021112
Hobart 4 12011122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 11010022
Casey 6 23212121
Mawson 25 64332225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2221 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jun 34 G2, chance G3
05 Jun 60 G2, chance G3
06 Jun 25 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 3 June and
is current for 4-5 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and planetary regions on UT day 03-Jun. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region
with an isolated period of G2 observed at Mawson. G2 planetary
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 04-05 Jun, with a chance
of G3 and G0, chance G1 on 06-Jun due to the arrival of a CME
first observed on 03-Jun. The CME is expected to arrival on 04/1400UT
+/- 10 hrs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
05 Jun Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
06 Jun Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were normal to fair on
UT day 03-Jun, with some degradations observed in the southern
hemisphere. Global ionospheric conditions are expected to be
initially normal becoming fair-poor from late 04-Jun and continuing
over 05-06 Jun, with degradations possible at high to mid latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jun 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 67
Jun 68
Jul 65
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jun 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on
2 June and is current for 2-4 Jun. Maximum Usable Frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced on UT day 03-Jun. Spread-F was observed
at Canberra, Hobart and Learmonth during local night hours. A
period of ionospheric scintillation was observed at Nuie between
03/0756UT and 03/0817UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced on 04-Jun, then near predicted
monthly values over 05-06 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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