[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 July 26 issued 2340 UT on 22 Jul 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 23 09:40:35 AEST 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.6 0635UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 22-Jul reached the R1
level, due to an M3.6 flare peaking at 22/0635UT produced by
Active Region (AR) 4493 (N05W16, beta-gamma-delta). This region
is the largest and most magnetically complex of four on the visible
solar disk, and has exhibited slight decay in its intermediate
spots over the past UT day. All other regions on the disk have
remained mostly stable over the same period. Solar flare activity
is forecast to be at the R1 level over 23-25 Jul, with a chance
of R2, due to the magnetic complexity of AR 4493. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed over 22-Jul, with the proton flux
consistent with background values. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are forecast over 23-25 Jul. A south-west-directed coronal mass
ejection (CME) was observed in GOES19/CCOR1 from 22/0830UT and
STEREO/COR2 from 22/0609UT. Modelling indicates this CME is not
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Jul was stable,
ranging from 385 to 480 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s.
The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) peaked at
12 nT, with the north-south component (Bz) ranging between -10
and +8 nT over the UT day. A sustained period of southward IMF
conditions was observed over the interval 22/0930-1232UT. The
solar wind is expected to increase over 23-24 Jul due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal
hole, currently rotating towards a geoeffective position. An
additional small discrete increase in the solar wind speed may
be observed on 23-Jul due to the possible glancing impact of
the previously mentioned CME first observed on 21-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 8 13233111
Cocos Island 5 02222112
Darwin 7 13223111
Townsville 9 23233112
Learmonth 8 13233112
Alice Springs 7 13232111
Gingin 6 12232112
Canberra 7 13233101
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 13242111
Hobart 9 13243111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 10 12244300
Casey 9 33322212
Mawson 27 26433335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 2334 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 15 G0-G1
24 Jul 12 G0, chance G1
25 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 21 July and
is current for 22-23 Jul. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were at the G0 level on UT day 22-Jul, with G0 conditions
also reported at the planetary level. G1-G2 conditions were reported
in the Antarctic region at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are forecast over 23 Jul due to coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects, combined with a possible glancing CME impact
on 23-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1, are
forecast for 24-Jul and G0 for 25-Jul as these effects subside.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Global high-frequency (HF) radio propagation conditions
were mostly normal on UT day 22-Jul, with some degradations in
high latitude regions. Global HF propagation conditions are forecast
to be mostly normal over 23-25 Jul with normal to fair conditions
at high latitudes over 23-24 Jul due to forecast geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 81
Jul 66
Aug 63
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 75 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values on 22-Jul, with some enhancements
of up to 15% observed in the Australian region. Sporadic E was
observed at Learmonth and Spread-F was observed at Perth, Hobart
and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are forecast to become
depressed by up to 15% over 23 Jul due to expected geomagnetic
activity over this period, before recovering to near predicted
values on 24-Jul and 25-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: N/A
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: N/A
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: N/A
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: N/A
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 10.1 p/cc Temp: 363000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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