[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 27 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Feb 28 10:30:50 AEDT 2026
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 139/93
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Feb was R0. Solar regions
AR4378 (N16E45, beta) and AR4380 (S18E65, beta) produced low
level C class flare activity. Region AR4379 (S17E52, beta-gamma)
remained flare quiet. There are currently three numbered solar
regions and one new unnumbered region on the solar disk. These
small to medium sized spot groups have been generally stable
in area and are currently all located in the far eastern solar
hemisphere with the western solar hemisphere devoid of spots.
The new region is located at approximately N08E75 and at this
stage appears to be of the more simple alpha (monopole) magnetic
class, though more spots could possibly rotate onto the disk.
Some minor on disk plasma motion and emission was observed near
the new region (latitude range N10-N20) at 27/1258UT and narrow
minor plasma ejecta was observed on the southeast solar limb
(latitude S30) from 27/1008UT. Solar activity is expected to
be R0, chance R1 over 28-Feb and 02-Mar. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed on UT day 27-Feb. A southeast directed CME was
observed from 27/1100UT in association with the narrow southeast
limb plasma ejecta. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on UT day 27-Feb. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 28-Feb to 02-Mar. The solar wind speed exhibited
an overall declining trend on 27-Feb as the influence of a solar
coronal hole wind stream gradually abates. The solar wind speed
ranged between 430 and 533 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +3 to -4 nT. A small disturbance is expected from
a weak CME (filament eruption observed on 25-Feb) from late on
28-Feb. The solar wind speed is then expected to continue to
return to background levels late on 01-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22123312
Cocos Island 5 21111311
Darwin 6 21112312
Townsville 8 22123322
Learmonth 8 22222322
Alice Springs 7 21123312
Gingin 9 22123323
Canberra 7 22123212
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 22223312
Hobart 8 22223312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 16 32125511
Casey 16 44432322
Mawson 21 44333325
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 4443 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 14 G0, mild activity late in UT day
01 Mar 14 G0, mild activity early in UT day
02 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with periods of G1 conditions
observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 28 Feb to 02-Mar. A weak CME impact is expected late on
28-Feb, with a mild increase in geomagnetic activity extending
to early in the UT day on 01-Mar, but this CME arrival is not
expected to cause any activity above G0.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 27-Feb were
fair to normal with fair conditions observed at middle to high
latitudes. The Macquarie Island riometer observed increased absorption
of approximately 1.5 to 2dB during the interval 27/0133-0333UT.
HF radio propagation conditions at middle to high latitudes are
expected to become mildly degraded from late in the UT day on
28-Feb to early in the UT day on 01-Mar due to a weak CME arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 96
Feb 88
Mar 87
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Mar 75 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Mar 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the southern Australian
region on UT day 27-Feb were depressed 25% during the local day.
Northern Australian region MUFs remained near predicted monthly
values. Sporadic-E was observed at times at Niue and Canberra.
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted values over
28-Feb to 02-Mar, with the chance of southern Australian region
MUFs becoming 15% depressed on 01-Mar if a weak CME arrival eventuates
on 28-Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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