[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 February 26 issued 2330 UT on 21 Feb 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Feb 22 10:30:49 AEDT 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb:  R0 

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Feb             23 Feb             24 Feb
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0 
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 21-Feb was at the R0 
level, with no significant flaring activity. There is currently 
one numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk which 
is small, magnetically simple and in decay. Solar flare activity 
is expected to be at the R0 level over 22-24 Feb. S0 solar radiation 
storm conditions were observed on UT day 21-Feb. S0 solar radiation 
storm conditions are expected over 22-24 Feb. No Earth-directed 
coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed. The solar wind 
speed on UT day 21-Feb increased slightly, mostly ranging between 
450 and 560 km/s and is currently near 550 km/s. The peak total 
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -10 to +12 nT. The 
solar wind is expected to remain steady on 22-Feb and early 23-Feb 
then start increasing late 23-Feb and 24-Feb due to high speed 
wind stream effects from an equatorial coronal hole rotating 
towards a geoeffective location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: G0

Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33332234
      Cocos Island        11   33322223
      Darwin              14   43332233
      Townsville          16   44332224
      Learmonth           16   43332234
      Alice Springs       12   33332223
      Gingin              13   43322233
      Canberra            13   33322234
      Kennaook Cape Grim  14   33332234
      Hobart              13   33322134    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     9   33210124
      Casey               27   56442133
      Mawson              21   54322235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             12   1322 3234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Feb    15    G0, chance of G1
23 Feb    21    G0-G1
24 Feb    22    G1, chance of G2

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 21-Feb. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 
observed at Mawson and G2 observed at Casey. G0, chance of G1 
planetary geomagnetic conditions on 22 Feb due to a mild increase 
in geomagnetic activity from a southern hemisphere coronal hole 
winds stream glancing impact. G0-G1 conditions forecast on 23-Feb 
due to a coronal hole moving into a geoeffective position late 
in the UT day and G1, chance of G2 on 24-Feb due to coronal hole 
high speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
24 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Global ionospheric conditions were mostly normal on 
UT day 21-Feb, with fair conditions observed at high latitudes 
at times. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 22-Feb 
becoming normal to fair on 23-24 Feb due to increased geomagnetic 
conditions from coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Feb    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      96
Feb      88
Mar      87

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Feb    95    Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Feb in 
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values with 
up to 30% enhancement at low latitudes. Spread F was observed 
at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values on 22 Feb with chance of 
slightly depressed values on 23-24 Feb due to the increased geomagnetic 
conditions from the Coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 476 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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