[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 March 26 issued 2330 UT on 31 Mar 2026 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Apr 1 10:30:44 AEDT 2026


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2026
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 141/95


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             140/94

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 31-Mar was R0. There 
are currently ten Active Regions on the Solar disk. Solar region 
AR4409 (N03E44, beta) is the newest region, which has developed 
a number of spots in the last 24 hours. AR4303 (N15W09, beta) 
has shown some continued east-west separation. AR4404 (N17E10, 
beta) has seen the development of a number of smaller spots to 
its north. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in 
decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 01-Apr to 
03-Apr. An Earth directed CME was observed, following an X1.4 
flare that occurred on the 30-Mar. It was estimated to arrive 
at 31/1600UT +/- 10 hours. Signs of its arrival are yet to be 
seen. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT 
day 31-Mar. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected 
over 01-Apr to 03-Apr. A coronal hole is visible in the southwest 
solar quadrant and is expected to become geoeffective on the 
03-Apr. The solar wind speed on UT day 31-Mar saw a gentle decline 
from its moderately elevated state, due to an earlier solar wind 
stream. The solar wind ranged from 460 to 390 km/s and is currently 
at 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was 
+5 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase 
over the next three days, due to the anticipated arrival of a 
CME and then from solar wind influences on the 03-Apr due to 
a coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: G0

Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12122111
      Cocos Island         2   11211100
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Townsville           5   22122112
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Alice Springs        5   12122112
      Gingin               5   22222210
      Canberra             4   12122111
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   12122211
      Hobart               5   12122211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     5   11222310
      Casey               11   34332211
      Mawson              13   23222315

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   3333 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr    46    G2-G3
02 Apr    29    G1-G2
03 Apr    29    G1-G2

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 31 March 
and is current for 31 Mar to 2 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 31-Mar. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. An Earth directed 
CME was anticipated to arrive at approximately 31/1600UT +/- 
10 hours, but has yet to do so. This is expected to give rise 
to G2-G3 conditions on 01-Apr, giving way to G1-G2 on 02-Apr. 
G1-G2 conditions are expected on the 03-Apr, with a coronal hole 
high speed wind stream expected to bolster waning CME effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Poor           Poor           Poor
02 Apr      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
03 Apr      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 31-Mar were 
normal. HF conditions are expected to be degraded during the 
next three days at all latitudes, due to a CME anticipated to 
now arrive on the 01-Apr, followed by connection with a coronal 
hole on the 03-Apr. Isolated fadeouts are possible, due to flaring 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar   108

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      98
Mar      87
Apr      85

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    60    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
02 Apr    60    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
03 Apr    60    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 30 was issued 
on 31 March and is current for 31 Mar to 2 Apr. Maximum usable 
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 31-Mar 
were generally near predicted values with enhancements of up 
to 15% during local night in the northern Australian region. 
Spread F was observed at Hobart during the local night. Sporadic 
E was also seen during the first half of the 31-Mar at Niue. 
MUFs are expected to be up to 30% depressed over 01-Apr to 03-Apr. 
Ionospheric depression is anticipated due to a CME expected to 
now arrive on the 01-Apr, followed by connection with a coronal 
hole on the 03-Apr. Isolated fadeouts are possible, due to flaring 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 450 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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