[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 September 25 issued 2330 UT on 26 Sep 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Sep 27 09:30:50 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 SEPTEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6    2001UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 165/119


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Sep was R1, with an isolated 
M1.6 solar flare from a region rotating over from the northeastern 
solar limb, not yet in view. There are currently nine numbered 
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR4224 (S16W78, beta), AR4229 
(S04W73, beta) and AR4230 (S09E18, beta) have all grown slightly, 
but in general the sunspots remain stable. Solar activity is 
expected to be R0-R1 over 27-29 Sep.

 No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 26-Sep.

 S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 26-Sep.
 S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 27-29 Sep. 

The solar wind environment on UT day 26-Sep was steady and undisturbed.
 The solar wind speed ranged from 489 trending down to 388 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT
 and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was -3 to +4 nT. 
The solar wind is expected to be near background levels over 27-29 Sep.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: G0

Estimated Indices 26 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121012
      Cocos Island         2   11110011
      Darwin               4   21111022
      Townsville           4   21121012
      Learmonth            5   22121122
      Alice Springs        3   11121012
      Gingin               6   22122122
      Canberra             3   11022011
      Kennaook Cape Grim   3   11122011
      Hobart               4   12122011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     3   12022010
      Casey               10   43321112
      Mawson              22   34321164

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1123 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep     8    G0
28 Sep     6    G0
29 Sep     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 26-Sep. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 27-29 Sep.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 26-Sep were 
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to 
be mostly normal over 27-20 Sep.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep   119

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      96
Sep      92
Oct      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Sep   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Sep   120    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 26-Sep were near predicted values to 30% enhanced. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced 
over 27-29 Sep. Equatorial scintillation is possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 483 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    76200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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