[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 September 25 issued 2330 UT on 07 Sep 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Sep 8 09:30:46 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 06/2215UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity R0 chance of R1 R0 chance of R1 R0 chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Sep was at R0. There are
currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk
with AR4207 (N29W32, beta-gamma) being the most magnetically
complex region but showing decay over the UT day. AR4213 (S13E16)
has shown growth in its leader and intermediates and AR4212 (N11W32,
alpha) a small region has shown both growth and decay over the
UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
A small solar filament eruption located at S18W50 was observed
on 07/0426UT with GONG H-alpha imagery with no associated CME.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 Level with a chance
of R1 over 08-10 Sep. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on UT day 07-Sep. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 08-10 Sep. A coronal hole spans across the
solar disk in the southern solar hemisphere, with most of the
area of this hole now west of the solar central meridian. No
earth directed CME's have been observed. The solar wind speed
on UT day 07-Sep has remained steady ranging from 454 to 630
km/s and is currently near 514 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was 5- to +4nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated and steady due to the wind stream
from the coronal hole located in the southern solar hemisphere.
A weak CME arrival that was expected on 07-Sep from a small filament
eruption on 04-Sep appears to have arrived as an indistinct transient
in the solar wind parameters during the second half of 06-Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 00000012
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 3 10100023
Townsville 1 10000012
Learmonth 2 00110022
Alice Springs 1 00000012
Gingin 2 10000022
Canberra 0 00000002
Kennaook Cape Grim 1 00000012
Hobart 1 00000012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 4 21221012
Mawson 10 20000145
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 26 4443 4541
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 15 G0 with a chance of G1
09 Sep 12 G0 with a chance of G1
10 Sep 10 G0 with a chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 65 was issued on 6 September
and is current for 6-8 Sep. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 07-Sep. In the Antarctic region
G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed. G0 with a chance
of G1 are expected on 08-10 Sep due to ongoing coronal hole wind
stream influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 07-Sep were
fair to normal. HF radio propagation conditions are generally
expected to be mostly normal over 08-10 Sep. Isolated minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 96
Sep 92
Oct 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the northern Australian
region on UT day 07-Sep were near predicted monthly values. Spread
F was observed at Canberra, Perth Hobart, Niue during local night
hours. MUFs are generally expected to be near to predicted monthly
values on 08 Sep with degraded HF conditions during local night
hours for the southern Australian region. Scintillation was observed
at Niue on UT day 07 Sep starting at 07:56 and ending on 08:20
UT 04 Sep. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 09-10 Sep. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 529 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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