[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 September 25 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Sep 4 09:30:48 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 180/133


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     R0 to R1           R0 to R1           R0 to R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            178/131            175/129

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Sep was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently thirteen 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4197 (S18W65, 
beta) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk but 
appears stable. AR4207 (N30E28, beta) and AR4210 (N09E43, beta) 
are both showing growth in its intermediate spots and has also 
been responsible for some minor flaring. All other sunspot regions 
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to 
be at the R0-R1 level over 04-06 Sep. S0 solar proton conditions 
were observed on UT day 03-Sep. S0 solar proton conditions are 
expected over 04-06 Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Sep decreased from 540 to 449 
km/s and is currently near 447 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +3 nT. A recurrent southern 
hemisphere coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian 
and is likely to influence the solar wind from 06-Sep.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: G0

Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22221021
      Cocos Island         4   22121020
      Darwin               5   22221121
      Townsville           4   22221011
      Learmonth            6   32222021
      Alice Springs        5   22221021
      Gingin               6   22221130
      Canberra             4   22211021
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   22211121
      Hobart               5   22211121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     7   33321020
      Casey               11   43331031
      Mawson              27   53442163

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        34
           Planetary             14   5444 3454     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep    10    G0
05 Sep    14    G0
06 Sep    20    G0-G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 03-Sep. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
on 04-05 Sep. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 06-Sep 
due to a recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole moving into 
a geoeffective position.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 03-Sep were 
mostly normal at low and mid latitudes and fair to poor at high 
latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be 
normal to fair over 04-05 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Sep    97

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      96
Sep      92
Oct      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep   110    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Sep   105    Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep   107    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 82 was issued on 
3 September and is current for 3-5 Sep. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the northern Australian region on UT day 03-Sep were 
near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the southern Australian 
region were depressed by 25% during local day and near predicted 
values during local night. Spread F was observed in Hobart and 
Canberra during local night. MUFs are expected to be near to 
15% enhanced over 04 Sep UT and predicted monthly values over 
05-06 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    55800 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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