[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 25 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Oct 26 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Oct was at the R0 level,
with low level C-class flares observed. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Newly numbered
AR4269 (S12E45, beta) recently appeared on the disk and has shown
spot growth. AR4262 (S13W29, beta) has shown decay in its trailer
spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 26-28 Oct.
S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 25-Oct. S0
solar proton conditions are expected over 26-28 Oct. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. A northward CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 25/1124UT. This CME is considered
a farside event and therefore not geoeffective. A low velocity
southward CME visible from 25/1200UT is also not considered Earth-directed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 25-Oct declined, ranging from
395 to 545 km/s and is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -6 to +6 nT. A southern
hemisphere coronal hole is currently crossing the central meridian
and is expected to influence the solar wind speed on 28-Oct.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
over 26-27 Oct, then increase on 28-Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 23312001
Cocos Island 3 22212000
Darwin 6 23212012
Townsville 7 23322011
Learmonth 7 33312001
Alice Springs 6 23312001
Gingin 7 33312001
Canberra 6 23322001
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 23322001
Hobart 6 23322001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 9 23342100
Casey 19 45531112
Mawson 11 43422011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3222 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 6 G0
27 Oct 6 G0
28 Oct 14 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Oct. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 26-28 Oct, with a chance of G1 on 28-Oct due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects from a southern hemisphere
coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 25-Oct were
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 26-28 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 102
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Oct 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Oct were near predicted monthly values. Mild
spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
over 26-28 Oct.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 194000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list