[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 October 25 issued 2330 UT on 22 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Oct 23 10:30:43 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity R0 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Oct was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently ten
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Region AR4262
(S14E11, alpha) has shown evolution in its shape, extending itself
East-West. Region AR4265 (N11W06, beta) has recently emerged
on the solar disk and consists of two small, distinct spots.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level on the 23-Oct and
R0-R1 levels over 24-25 Oct, due to the possible return of previously
flare active regions AR4232 and AR4236. S0 solar proton conditions
were observed on UT day 22-Oct, although a notable increase was
observed by GOES-18, beginning at 21/2330UT and peaking on the
10 MeV channel at 22/1030UT. Levels remain elevated from background.
S0-S1 solar proton conditions are expected over 23-25 Oct, due
to recent farside CME activity. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A CME was observed, visible in LASCO and STEREO-A coronagraph
imagery from 22/1100UT. This CME is considered a farside event
and therefore not geoeffective. Two additional CMEs have been
observed. The first is visible in LASCO imagery from 22/2048UT,
analysis of this CME is ongoing. The second is visible in LASCO
imagery from 22/2136UT, this CME is currently considered a farside
event and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Oct
saw a general decline, ranging from 377 to 464 km/s and is currently
near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the North-South IMF component (Bz) range
was -6 to +8 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field strength has
shown a general increase in magnitude, with a delta of 6 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 23-25 Oct due
to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11111122
Cocos Island 3 11110121
Darwin 5 22111113
Townsville 5 21121122
Learmonth 3 21111111
Alice Springs 4 22111112
Gingin 3 11111121
Canberra 4 11111122
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 11112112
Hobart 3 11011122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 10011102
Casey 21 45442133
Mawson 8 22211233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3321 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 6 G0
24 Oct 6 G0
25 Oct 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Oct. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 23-25 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 22-Oct were
normal. Normal HF conditions are expected over 23-25 Oct. Minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct 123
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
24 Oct 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
25 Oct 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 22-Oct were near predicted monthly values to
40% enhanced in the northern Australian region and 20% enhanced
in the southern Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 25% enhanced over 23-25 Oct. Mild shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 126000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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