[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 October 25 issued 2332 UT on 31 Oct 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Nov 1 10:32:26 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 OCTOBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 132/86
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Oct was at the R0 level,
with a C7.1 flare observed at 31/2040UT. There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All
regions appeared stable and magnetically simple. The C7.1 flare
from 31/2040UT was produced by a region over the eastern limb
at around N30. All other sunspot regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level, with
a chance of R1 due to flaring over the eastern limb over 01-03
Nov. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 31-Oct.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 01-03 Nov. Several
CMEs were observed over the UT day, none are considered geoeffective.
Three east/north-east directed CMEs were observed from 31/0024UT,
31/0912UT and 31/2024UT. All these CMEs are associated with eruptions
behind the eastern limb, visible in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery
from 31/0021, 31/0833 and 31/2009UT respectively. The third of
these CMEs was associated with the C7.1 flare at 31/2040UT. All
three CMEs are considered far side events and not geoeffective.
A north west directed flare was observed from 31/1418UT. This
event has no associated on disk activity and is not considered
geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 31-Oct decreased,
mostly ranging between 800 to 530 km/s and is currently near
610 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -9 to +5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue
to decline towards backgrounds levels and remain there over 01-03
Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 14 33343322
Cocos Island 12 23333322
Darwin 14 33333323
Townsville 17 33443332
Learmonth 17 33353322
Alice Springs 14 33343322
Gingin 15 33343332
Canberra 13 23343322
Kennaook Cape Grim 21 34454322
Hobart 19 34444322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Oct :
Macquarie Island 32 34655431
Casey 31 56533333
Mawson 45 46554464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 38 5445 5534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 16 G0, chance of G1
02 Nov 10 G0
03 Nov 8 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 31-Oct, with periods of G1 activity
observed at Learmonth and Kennaook Cape Grim. G1 conditions were
observed at the planetary level. G2 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. Due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with
a chance of G1 are expected on 01-Nov. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 02-03 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 31-Oct were
mostly fair, with poor conditions at high latitudes. Conditions
were worse in the southern hemisphere. Normal to fair conditions
are expected on 01-Nov due to ongoing high speed wind stream
effects. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 02-03 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 109
Oct 89
Nov 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Oct were
near predicted monthly values in the northern Australian region.
MUFs were depressed by 15-30% in the southern Australian region,
with a recovery towards predicted monthly values observed over
the UT day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. Sporadic E was observed at Townsville during local evening
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 01-Nov, with a chance of mild depressions in the southern
Australian region. MUFs are expected to ne near predicted monthly
values over 02-03 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 534 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 254000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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