[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 May 25 issued 2335 UT on 30 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat May 31 09:35:40 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.4 0613UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1839UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 May 01 Jun 02 Jun
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-May was at the R1 level
due to an M3.4 flare at 30/0613UT and an M1.6 flare at 30/1845UT.
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the
solar disk. AR4100 (N07E15, gamma-delta), AR4101 (N03E04, beta-gamma)
and AR4104 (N05E44, beta-gamma) showed spot development. AR4101
and AR4104 may have small delta spots in addition to AR4099 (S14E01,
beta-delta) (in decay) and AR4100. AR4100 and AR4014 were responsible
for the two M-Class flares of the UT day respectively. All other
sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be
at R1-R2 levels over 31-May to 02-Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. A small, northwest directed CME is visible
from 30/0048UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is not
expected to be geoeffective. An east directed, partial halo CME
is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 30/0712UT. This
event is associated with an eruption from 30/0610UT aound N03E20,
visible in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. This eruption
is associated with the M3.4 flare at 30/0613UT. Modelling suggests
this CME will pass behind the Earth. There is a possible second
CME on the same line as the above CME, visible from 30/1248UT
in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. Modelling suggests this CME will
also pass behind the Earth. The solar wind speed on UT day 30-May
was steady, ranging from 630 to 830 km/s and is currently near
730 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -6 to +7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 31-May to 02-Jun due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from an equatorial coronal hole. A decline is possible
on 02-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: G0
Estimated Indices 30 May : A K
Australian Region 21 43434433
Cocos Island 14 33323432
Darwin 19 44333433
Townsville 16 43333333
Learmonth 26 44434543
Alice Springs 16 43333333
Gingin 26 44434543
Canberra 18 43434332
Kennaook Cape Grim 24 43444443
Hobart 24 43444443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
Macquarie Island 46 45566543
Casey 39 44433573
Mawson 61 66554566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 19 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 83 (Minor storm)
Canberra 83 (Minor storm)
Hobart 151 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 0 7555 6665
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 May 18 G0, chance G1
01 Jun 12 G0
02 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region during the UT day 30-May. Periods of G1 activity
were observed at Learmonth and Gingin. Mostly G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G3 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with
a chance of G1 are expected on 31-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 01-02 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-May were
mostly fair to poor. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly fair on 31-May and normal to fair over 01-02 Jun.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 May 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 May 80 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
01 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the southern Australian
region on UT day 30-May were depressed by up to 25%. MUFs in
the northern Australian region were near predicted monthly values
to depressed by up to 30%. Spread F was observed at Hobart and
Canberra during local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at
Cocos Islands during much of the UT day. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 31-May to 02-Jun, with
depressions of up to 15% possible on 31-May. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 677 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 360000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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